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Seaver, D.A.; Stillwell, W.G.
Decision Science Consortium, Inc., Falls Church, VA (USA)1983
Decision Science Consortium, Inc., Falls Church, VA (USA)1983
AbstractAbstract
[en] This report describes and evaluates several procedures for using expert judgment to estimate human-error probabilities (HEPs) in nuclear power plant operations. These HEPs are currently needed for several purposes, particularly for probabilistic risk assessments. Data do not exist for estimating these HEPs, so expert judgment can provide these estimates in a timely manner. Five judgmental procedures are described here: paired comparisons, ranking and rating, direct numerical estimation, indirect numerical estimation and multiattribute utility measurement. These procedures are evaluated in terms of several criteria: quality of judgments, difficulty of data collection, empirical support, acceptability, theoretical justification, and data processing. Situational constraints such as the number of experts available, the number of HEPs to be estimated, the time available, the location of the experts, and the resources available are discussed in regard to their implications for selecting a procedure for use
Original Title
PWR; BWR
Primary Subject
Secondary Subject
Source
Mar 1983; 126 p; SAND--82-7054; Available from NTIS, PC A07/MF A01 - GPO as DE83012116
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Report
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