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AbstractAbstract
[en] The Atomic Energy Control Board is the head agency for the regulatory review of the Assessment of the Canadian Concept for Nuclear Fuel Waste Disposal being done by Atomic Energy of Canada Limited and Ontario Hydro. This paper describes the regulatory perspective of how the Concept Assessment could demonstrate the feasibility of a disposal conforming to regulatory requirements. The long-term aspects of Concept Assessment encourage the use of various predictive techniques for different time scales. Each technique will have a different potential for establishing confidence in the predictions. The predicted performance of a facility during operation should have a very high confidence, as it can be based on standard engineering calculations and the predictions can be validated later by monitoring during operation. The predictions of the transient period following closure of the facility should achieve a medium level of confidence, since they can be based on extrapolations of predictions of operational performance, using models that can be calibrated with monitoring data and with averaged input data derived from natural analog studies. Predictions based on fundamental processes will have a medium level of confidence when made to intermediate times after closure. Long-term predictions using generic or typical input data or Monte Carlo calculations of simplified models will have the least confidence and yet they can still contribute to the confidence that the disposal concept will conform to regulatory requirements
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Sep 1987; 14 p
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