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AbstractAbstract
[en] Posiva Oy has started a project for estimating the possible earthquake induced rock movements on the deposition holes containing canisters of spent nuclear fuel. These estimates will be made for the four investigation sites, Romuvaara, Kivetty, Olkiluoto and Haestholmen. This study deals with the current and future seismicity associated with the above mentioned sites. Seismic belts that participate the seismic behaviour of the studied sites have been identified and the magnitude-frequency distributions of these belts have been estimated. The seismic activity parameters of the sites have been deduced from the characteristics of the seismic belts in order to forecast the seismicity during the next 100,000 years. The report discusses the possible earthquakes induced by future glaciation. The seismic interpretation seems to indicate that the previous postglacial faults in Finnish Lapland have been generated in compressional environment. The orientation of the rather uniform compression has been NW-SE, which coincide with the current stress field. It seems that, although the impact of postglacial crustal rebound must have been significant, the impact of plate tectonics has been dominant. A major assumption of this study has been that future seismicity will generally resemble the current seismicity. However, when the postglacial seismicity is concerned, the magnitude-frequency distribution is likely different and the expected maximum magnitude will be higher. Maximum magnitudes of future postglacial earthquakes have been approximated by strain release examinations. Seismicity has been examined within the framework of the lineament maps, in order to associate the future significant earthquakes with active fault zones in the vicinity of the potential repository sites. (orig.)
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Oct 2000; 38 p; ISBN 951-652-099-5;
; 26 refs.

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