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AbstractAbstract
[en] The IVA-project 'Energy Foresight - Sweden in Europe' deals with possibilities and problems associated with our energy future. We take it for granted that various forms of energy will always be available for a multitude of purposes and at acceptable prices. Sweden also places high demands on health and environmental protection issues when it comes to the production of power and heat. During the last few years the climate issue has been highlighted, which in turn will change the conditions for the use of alternative sources of energy. Carbon dioxide is the most important of the greenhouse gases, and it is closely associated with the burning of coal, oil, and natural gas. These fossil fuels play dominant roles in the world 's energy supply. Far-reaching measures to decrease carbon dioxide emissions will thus greatly affect the ways in which we use fossil fuels and non-carbon dioxide generating sources of energy. We have chosen a global starting point for our energy study. From there we will zoom in on the energy systems of Europe and Sweden. The climate issue demands global approach. Deregulation of electricity and gas markets, and the development of integrated European systems related to these energy sources, requires an international perspective on he Swedish energy system. Our project differs from earlier governmental energy studies in the sense that we are not trying to present the most likely, nor the most desirable energy future. Instead we have opted to draw up some illustrations of Sweden's future energy system, with Europe as a backdrop. The climate issue differentiates the scenarios. Our time perspective is 20 years, with glimpses 50 years ahead. On the 18th of February 2003, the Steering Group of Energy Foresight - Sweden in Europe, presented it's final report. The bulk of the work has been done in four panels. Their reflections and conclusions are presented in separate panel reports. The 12 factual reports present different sources of energy, how hey are converted in to electricity and heat, and finally in what way energy is used within various parts of society. We look positively on the energy future. Technological development creates possibilities to handle the climate issue without jeopardizing continued economic growth, and also makes it easier to narrow the gaps between countries. However, this positive basic outlook is based on the assumption that no serious international conflicts or disasters occur. The future will tell whether his condition is too simplistic. In Sweden, we assume that our areas of technical and industrial strength develop, and that our advanced research within various globally growth-prone energy areas is enhanced. We also assume ha clear and stable government energy policies, such as taxation and financial incentives, will continue to be important in the future. The climate issue, as well as deregulated electricity and gas markets, require altered points of view. We welcome active Swedish participation in international forums to implement measures on carbon dioxide emissions, but Sweden should not single-handed penalize it self, which will have no effects on climate but will damage the national economy. The development of a common European electricity market, and an expansion of transfer capacity create import and export requirements and open up new avenues to make best use of different countries' resources and conditions. The centrally planned system with total national balance between consumption and production therefore becomes obsolete
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2003; 60 p; ISBN 91-7082-701-X;
; ISSN 1102-8254;
; Also available from: http://www.iva.se/cm/oliver_upload/upl1255-energy_foresight.pdf; OSTI; commercial reproduction prohibited; OSTI as DE20407889; PURL: https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/20407889-bG3fX0/native/; figs


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