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Peresan, A.; Kossobokov, V.; Romashkova, L.; Panza, G.F., E-mail: anto@dst-units.it
Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste (Italy)2003
Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste (Italy)2003
AbstractAbstract
[en] The Italian territory has been object of several studies devoted to the analysis of seismicity and to earthquake precursors' research. Although a number of observations have been claimed to precede large earthquakes, only few systematic studies have been carried out and almost no test of their performances is available up to now. In this paper we review the application to the Italian territory of two formally defined intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction algorithms, namely CN and M8S. The general methodology common to the two different algorithms makes use of general concepts of pattern recognition that permit to deal with multiple sets of seismic precursors, and allows for a systematic monitoring of seismicity, as well as for a widespread testing of the prediction performances. Italy represents the only region of moderate seismic activity where the M8S and CN algorithms are applied simultaneously for the routine monitoring. Significant efforts have been made to minimize the intrinsic space uncertainty of predictions and the subjectivity of the definition of the areas where precursors should be identified. Several experiments have been dedicated to assess the robustness of the methodology against the unavoidable uncertainties in the data. With these results acquired, predictions are routinely issued by CN algorithm, since January 1998, and by M8S algorithm, since January 2002. Starting in July 2003 an experiment has been launched for the real-time test of M8S and CN predictions. (author)
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Nov 2003; 72 p; PROJECT 1538-00; UNESCO-IUGS-LGCP PROJECT 414; NATO SFP PROJECT 972266; GRANT 00-15-98507; Refs, 17 figs, 8 tabs
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