[en] This scenario is the reference scenario compatible with the ''Business As Usual'' of the IAEA. In this tendencies, the France should not be concerned by a major economic, social and political crisis. The construction of the Europe and the globalization will continue as the technological innovation concerning the energy (The EPR reactor is included in the scenario). The document presents the main hypothesis, the final energy consumption, the energy independence, the production and the consumption of the primary energy, the carbon dioxide emissions and some possible variations of the scenario. (A.L.B.)