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Thacker, B.H.; Doebling, S.W.; Hemez, F.M.; Anderson, M.C.; Pepin, J.E.; Rodriguez, E.A.
Los Alamos National Lab., Los Alamos, NM (United States). Funding organisation: US DOE (United States)
Los Alamos National Lab., Los Alamos, NM (United States). Funding organisation: US DOE (United States)
AbstractAbstract
[en] Model verification and validation (VandV) is an enabling methodology for the development of computational models that can be used to make engineering predictions with quantified confidence. Model VandV procedures are needed by government and industry to reduce the time, cost, and risk associated with full-scale testing of products, materials, and weapon systems. Quantifying the confidence and predictive accuracy of model calculations provides the decision-maker with the information necessary for making high-consequence decisions. The development of guidelines and procedures for conducting a model VandV program are currently being defined by a broad spectrum of researchers. This report reviews the concepts involved in such a program. Model VandV is a current topic of great interest to both government and industry. In response to a ban on the production of new strategic weapons and nuclear testing, the Department of Energy (DOE) initiated the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program (SSP). An objective of the SSP is to maintain a high level of confidence in the safety, reliability, and performance of the existing nuclear weapons stockpile in the absence of nuclear testing. This objective has challenged the national laboratories to develop high-confidence tools and methods that can be used to provide credible models needed for stockpile certification via numerical simulation. There has been a significant increase in activity recently to define VandV methods and procedures. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) Modeling and Simulation Office (DMSO) is working to develop fundamental concepts and terminology for VandV applied to high-level systems such as ballistic missile defense and battle management simulations. The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) has recently formed a Standards Committee for the development of VandV procedures for computational solid mechanics models. The Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board (DNFSB) has been a proponent of model VandV for all safety-related nuclear facility design, analyses, and operations. In fact, DNFSB 2002-1 recommends to the DOE and National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) that a VandV process be performed for all safety related software and analysis. Model verification and validation are the primary processes for quantifying and building credibility in numerical models. Verification is the process of determining that a model implementation accurately represents the developer's conceptual description of the model and its solution. Validation is the process of determining the degree to which a model is an accurate representation of the real world from the perspective of the intended uses of the model. Both verification and validation are processes that accumulate evidence of a model's correctness or accuracy for a specific scenario; thus, VandV cannot prove that a model is correct and accurate for all possible scenarios, but, rather, it can provide evidence that the model is sufficiently accurate for its intended use. Model VandV is fundamentally different from software VandV. Code developers developing computer programs perform software VandV to ensure code correctness, reliability, and robustness. In model VandV, the end product is a predictive model based on fundamental physics of the problem being solved. In all applications of practical interest, the calculations involved in obtaining solutions with the model require a computer code, e.g., finite element or finite difference analysis. Therefore, engineers seeking to develop credible predictive models critically need model VandV guidelines and procedures. The expected outcome of the model VandV process is the quantified level of agreement between experimental data and model prediction, as well as the predictive accuracy of the model. This report attempts to describe the general philosophy, definitions, concepts, and processes for conducting a successful VandV program. This objective is motivated by the need for highly accurate numerical models for making predictions to support the SSP, and also by the lack of guidelines, standards a nd procedures for performing VandV for complex numerical models
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30 Oct 2004; 41 p; W-7405-ENG-36; Also available from OSTI as DE00835920; PURL: https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/835920-Yl8Ow3/native/
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