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[en] A wide range of energy technologies appears to be needed for the United States to meet its energy goals. A method is developed that relates the uncertainty of technological progress in eleven technology areas to the achievement of CO2 mitigation and reduced oil dependence. We conclude that to be confident of meeting both energy goals, each technology area must have a much better than 50/50 probability of success, that carbon capture and sequestration, biomass, battery electric or fuel cell vehicles, advanced fossil liquids, and energy efficiency technologies for buildings appear to be almost essential, and that the success of each one of the 11 technologies is important. These inferences are robust to moderate variations in assumptions.