[en] The major uncertainty characterizing the global energy landscape impacts particularly on transport, which remains the virtually-exclusive bastion of the oil industry. The industry must therefore respond to increasing demand for mobility against a background marked by the emergence of alternatives to oil-based fuels and the need to reduce emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHG). It is in this context that the 'Refining 2030' study conducted by IFP Energies Nouvelles (IFPEN) forecasts what the global supply and demand balance for oil products could be, and highlights the type and geographical location of the refinery investment required. Our study shows that the bulk of the refining investment will be concentrated in the emerging countries (mainly those in Asia), whilst the areas historically strong in refining (Europe and North America) face reductions in capacity. In this context, the drastic reduction in the sulphur specification of bunker oil emerges as a structural issue for European refining, in the same way as increasingly restrictive regulation of refinery CO₂ emissions (quotas/taxation) and the persistent imbalance between gasoline and diesel fuels. (authors)