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Kristöfel, Christa; Strasser, Christoph; Schmid, Erwin; Morawetz, Ulrich B., E-mail: christa.kristoefel@bioenergy2020.eu2016
AbstractAbstract
[en] EU bioenergy policies and oil price hikes have resulted in a significant increase of installed pellet boilers for residential heating. Hence, European demand for wood pellets has been growing faster and more steadily than supply leading to rising market prices in recent years. This article presents an econometric analysis of demand and supply of wood pellets in the residential heating sector in Austria, one of the most dynamic markets for residential pellets. Annual and monthly time series data between 2000 and 2014 are used in a two-stage least-squares (2SLS) regression to estimate supply and demand elasticities of wood pellets. In all model specifications, pellets demand is found to be inelastic (from −0.66 to −0.76) and pellets supply unit-elastic (from 1.03 to 1.18). Thus, consumers are highly exposed to price changes resulting from supply shocks. Policies which support investments in pellet boilers will shift the demand of wood pellets and likely leading to higher prices for consumers. - Highlights: • Characterisation of the European pellet market. • A structural market model for wood pellets in Austria. • Estimation of supply and demand price elasticities using a two-stage least-squares (2SLS) regression. • Pellets demand is found to be inelastic and pellets supply unit-elastic in the short run. • Policies stimulating demand will likely increase pellet and sawmill by-product prices.
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S0301-4215(15)30166-X; Available from http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.10.039; Copyright (c) 2015 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam, The Netherlands, All rights reserved.; Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
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