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Elzen, Michel den; Fekete, Hanna; Höhne, Niklas; Admiraal, Annemiek; Forsell, Nicklas; Hof, Andries F.; Olivier, Jos G.J.; Roelfsema, Mark; Soest, Heleen van, E-mail: michel.denelzen@pbl.nl2016
AbstractAbstract
[en] In June 2015, China announced its post-2020 reduction targets, its central element being the intention to peak CO_2 emissions by 2030 or earlier. China has implemented several policies to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study provides emission projections for China up to 2030 given current policies and a selected set of enhanced policies, and compares the results with projected CO_2 emission trajectories that are consistent with the announced target for 2030. The projections are based on existing scenarios and energy system and land use model calculations. We project that the 2030 CO_2 emission level consistent with a peak in CO_2 emissions by 2030 ranges from 11.3 to 11.8 GtCO_2. The corresponding total GHG emission level ranges from 13.5 to 14.0 GtCO_2e in 2030. Current policies are likely not to be sufficient to achieve the 2030 targets, as our projected total GHG emission level under current policies ranges from 14.7 to 15.4 GtCO_2e by 2030. However, an illustrative set of enhancement policy measures, all of which are related to national priorities, leads to projected GHG emission levels from 13.1 to 13.7 GtCO_2e by 2030 – and thus below the levels necessary for peaking CO_2 emissions before 2030. - Highlights: • China has announced its intention to peak CO_2 emissions by 2030 or earlier. • The peak in greenhouse gas emissions would reach 35–40% above 2010 levels. • Current policies are likely not to be sufficient to meet the announced 2030 target. • The expected emission levels reach about 50% above 2010 levels. • Our selected enhancement policy measures lead to peaking CO_2 emissions before 2030.
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S0301-4215(15)30208-1; Available from http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.11.030; Copyright (c) 2015 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam, The Netherlands, All rights reserved.; Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
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