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AbstractAbstract
[en] CO_2 represents more than 80% of all GHG emissions and it is increasing since 1990. Energy accounts for 85% of all GHG emissions. The United States account for almost 50% of all GHG emissions from the countries of the Annex B. Russian emissions have collapsed, from 22% to 13% of total emissions from Annex B countries between 1990 and 2002. The share of the United States has increased by 6 points since 1990, the EU-15's by one point. Germany, United Kingdom, France, Italy and Spain cover 75% of total GHG emissions from the EU-15 (2002). CO_2-energy emissions in the world: 26.3 GtCO_2 in 2003. Annex B's countries account for around 60% of the world emissions; Annex B's countries which have ratified the Kyoto Protocol represent around one third of all emissions; China accounts for 16% of total emissions. China, CEI, USA and the EU-25 drive world emissions in 2003: Chinese emissions have risen by from 12% between 2002 and 2003, they account for one third of the world emissions increase. Chinese emissions have increased as much as all Annex B's countries, 25% of the world emissions increase come from the Annex B's countries which have ratified the Kyoto Protocol. CO_2-energy Emissions from the annex B's countries have been steady between 1990 and 2003: The annex B's countries which have ratified Kyoto have decreased by 10% in 2003 compared to 1990; US emissions increased sharply when those of the EU-25 decreased: +20% versus -5%; The 'hot air' of the CIS still represents 28% of 1990 CIS emissions; Meanwhile, the weight of China and India has dramatically increased: +73% and 82%. Coal is the principal emission source in the world in 2003. Since 1990, the emissions increase is principally due to coal. The energy sector (power generation essentially) accounts for more than half of total CO_2-energy emissions; the transport sector is the second largest emitter (20%). 3/4 of the CO_2-energy emissions increase is due to the energy sector, 1/4 due to the transport sector. The industrial sector and the other sectors do not emit more in 2003 than in 1990. All large countries and zones of the Annex B, except the CIS and Eastern Europe countries, resolutely deviate from the Kyoto objectives; relatively, the UE-15 performs better than the other zones. Despite the Russian hot air, global emissions from the Annex B countries are 1.5 GtCO_2 higher than the Kyoto objectives for 2003. Only 5 countries are less than 12% from the objective in 2003: Germany, France, Greece, UK, Sweden. 4 countries are more than 35% higher from the objective: Austria, Spain, Ireland, Luxemburg. There are 3 principal drivers explaining emissions dynamics: Economic and demographic growths generate higher emissions; Emissions/capita disparities are also linked to energy fuel mix, in particular for electricity generation: this fuel mix evolution partly explains the differences among countries performance vs. Kyoto; The various sectors emitting CO_2-energy weight unequally within total emissions: differences in dynamics by sector partly explain the evolutions observed. The natural gas penetration and relative coal receding slow the emissions increase and is even more accentuated in Europe. The electric sector and transport, main drivers of world emissions increase. Situations and evolutions are more contrasted in Europe for the energy sector. Contrasted positions in the industry sector vs. CO_2 emissions (including process) within the Annex B countries. A similar contrast is observed in the EU. Anticipation of carbon prices: a market simulated by the POLES model, based on carbon supply and offer. In particular, the POLES model assesses the effect of the USA withdrawal and Russian 'hot air' on the carbon market. The implementation of the EU ETS will lead to an increase in gas prices. Energy prices will be more affected by carbon price in the industry sector than in other sectors
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19 Jan 2005; 34 p; Available from the INIS Liaison Officer for France, see the 'INIS contacts' section of the INIS website for current contact and E-mail addresses: http://www.iaea.org/inis/Contacts/
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Numerical Data
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AGREEMENTS, CARBON COMPOUNDS, CARBON OXIDES, CHALCOGENIDES, CLIMATIC CHANGE, DATA, ENERGY SOURCES, ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, FLUIDS, FOSSIL FUELS, FUEL GAS, FUELS, GAS FUELS, GASES, GOVERNMENT POLICIES, INDUSTRY, INFORMATION, INSTITUTIONAL FACTORS, INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS, MULTILATERAL AGREEMENTS, NUMERICAL DATA, OXIDES, OXYGEN COMPOUNDS, POLLUTION ABATEMENT, PRICES
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