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Tobin, I; Vautard, R; Bréon, F-M; Greuell, W; Ludwig, F; Van Vliet, M T H; Jerez, S, E-mail: robert.vautard@lsce.ipsl.fr2018
AbstractAbstract
[en] The electricity sector is currently considered mainly on the emission side of the climate change equation. In order to limit climate warming to below 2 °C, or even 1.5 °C, it must undergo a rapid transition towards carbon neutral production by the mid-century. Simultaneously, electricity generating technologies will be vulnerable to climate change. Here, we assess the impacts of climate change on wind, solar photovoltaic, hydro and thermoelectric power generation in Europe using a consistent modelling approach across the different technologies. We compare the impacts for different global warming scenarios: +1.5 °C, +2 °C and +3 °C. Results show that climate change has negative impacts on electricity production in most countries and for most technologies. Such impacts remain limited for a 1.5 °C warming, and roughly double for a 3 °C warming. Impacts are relatively limited for solar photovoltaic and wind power potential which may reduce up to 10%, while hydropower and thermoelectric generation may decrease by up to 20%. Generally, impacts are more severe in southern Europe than in northern Europe, inducing inequity between EU countries. We show that a higher share of renewables could reduce the vulnerability of power generation to climate change, although the variability of wind and solar PV production remains a significant challenge. (letter)
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Source
Available from http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab211; Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Record Type
Journal Article
Journal
Environmental Research Letters; ISSN 1748-9326;
; v. 13(4); [8 p.]

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