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AbstractAbstract
[en] Oil prices, having soared to over $70/b at the start of 2019, fell back after May to levels of between 60 and $65/b. They briefly climbed back to the $70/b mark at the end of the year on the back of geopolitical tensions. Since mid- January, the oil price has remained below $60/b due to the potential impacts of the coronavirus on world economic growth. Setting aside this new context, the evolutions seen in 2019 primarily reflect the significant influence, deliberate or otherwise, of the USA. This influence manifested itself in three ways: firstly, the trade war between the USA and China, a source of financial instability and economic uncertainties; secondly, geopolitical tensions with Iran and Venezuela in particular; and thirdly, question marks surrounding the development potential of tight oil (or shale oil). In December 2019, OPEC+, i.e., an alliance of OPEC and 10 producing countries including Russia, adapted its oil strategy to this uncertain context. All of these parameters combined serve to reinforce the lack of market visibility, a situation that is, in reality, fairly standard for the sector. (author)
[fr]
Le prix du petrole, apres avoir rapidement progresse au-dela des 70 $/b en debut d'annee 2019, est retombe apres le mois de mai vers des niveaux compris entre 60 et 65 $/b. Il a de nouveau atteint brievement les 70 $/b en fin d'annee sous l'effet des tensions geopolitiques. Il se situe a moins de 60 $/b depuis mi-janvier en raison des effets potentiels du coronavirus sur la croissance economique mondiale. En dehors de ce nouveau contexte, les evolutions survenues en 2019 refletent pour une large part l'influence significative, volontaire ou non, des etats-Unis. Cette influence s'est manifestee de trois facons, du fait de la guerre commerciale entre les etats-Unis et la Chine, source d'instabilite financiere et d'incertitudes economiques, en raison des tensions geopolitiques en particulier avec l'Iran et le Venezuela et enfin au travers des interrogations concernant le potentiel de developpement des huiles de schiste (ou shale oil). L'Opep+, c'est-a-dire l'Opep associe a 10 pays producteurs dont la Russie, a adapte, en decembre 2019, sa strategie petroliere a ce contexte incertain. L'ensemble de ces parametres contribue a renforcer la faible visibilite du marche, situation finalement assez classique pour ce secteur. (auteur)Original Title
Marches petroliers 2019: les Etats-Unis menent le bal, l'Opep+ s'adapte
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Source
3 Feb 2020; 40 p; Available from the INIS Liaison Officer for France, see the INIS website for current contact and E-mail addresses
Record Type
Miscellaneous
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Country of publication
ADMINISTRATIVE PROCEDURES, ARAB COUNTRIES, ASIA, DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DRILLING, EASTERN EUROPE, ENERGY SOURCES, EUROPE, FOSSIL FUELS, FUELS, INDUSTRY, INSTITUTIONAL FACTORS, INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS, LATIN AMERICA, MARKET, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AMERICA, OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES, PETROLEUM, PRICES, SOUTH AMERICA
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