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AbstractAbstract
[en] The research work hereby presented, pretends to contribute with the well-known issue of dealing with the uncertainty of renewable sources (solar photovoltaic particularly) in a microgrid. More specifically, the objective of this work is to evaluate the impacts of solar photovoltaic production uncertainty in the performance of a microgrid that serves a smart-building, and to propose, test and validate strategies to deal with it. To tackle this problematic the work has been divided in three parts. First, the design and construction of a -laboratory scale- nano-grid (300 W peak consumption) has been carried out, along with a control interface to interact with the system and collect the data. This system is intended to emulate a microgrid that is being deployed in the Drahi-X Innovation building (campus of Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau, France), so that it serves as a test-bench for different energy management scenarios. The system conceived presents a direct-current common-bus architecture, where the power is freely exchanged among all the elements of the microgrid. The nano-grid is equipped with a measurements system, disconnection means for every element, as well as the capacity to control the power transacted by the battery, to some extent. The following of the real-time -scaled- consumption of the Drahi-X building is also possible. Some remote monitoring and control capabilities are included, as well as the gathering of some meteorological variables. Several months of power-flows data were gathered, that served for different analysis regarding the electrical interactions among elements of the nano-grid. This helped to improve the understanding of these type of systems in order to propose proper solutions for the uncertainty issue mentioned above. In a following step, the topic of solar irradiance forecasts is addressed. Profiting from the expertise of the SIRTA meteorological laboratory in the domain of weather forecasting (also located in the campus of Ecole Polytechnique), a collaborative work was performed in order to evaluate what is the reliability of readily available day-ahead solar irradiance forecasts which in turn, will be used to produce predictions of photovoltaic power production. For this, an analogs-ensembles method is proposed to obtain probabilistic information from the above-mentioned deterministic forecasts, to evaluate its eventual added value for an energy management system. The adapted analogs-ensembles method proposed demonstrated superior performance with respect to reference -probabilistic- forecasting methods, such as persistence, monthly climatology and a well-known commercially-available probabilistic forecasting method from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). It was evaluated based on the quantile skill score decomposed in reliability, resolution and uncertainty, which are state-of-the-art metrics for probabilistic forecasting assessment. Besides, the quantile forecasts obtained from the analogs-ensembles proved to be an interesting solution to reduce forecasting uncertainty, as they provide information about the 'sign' of the forecasting error. If chosen properly, this feature might be beneficial for the resource scheduling tasks performed by an energy management system, as proven in the last part of this work. (author)
[fr]
Les travaux de recherche presentes ici pretendent contribuer a la question bien connue de la gestion de l'incertitude des sources renouvelables (en particulier l'energie solaire photovoltaique) dans un micro-reseau. Plus specifiquement, l'objectif de ce travail est d'evaluer les impacts de l'incertitude de la production solaire photovoltaique sur les performances d'un micro-reseau qui dessert un batiment intelligent, et de proposer, tester et valider des strategies pour y faire face. Pour aborder cette problematique, le travail a ete divise en trois parties. Premierement, la conception et la construction d'un nanoreseau a l'echelle du laboratoire (300 W de consommation de pointe) ont ete realisees, ainsi qu'une interface de controle pour interagir avec le systeme et collecter les donnees. Ce systeme est destine a emuler un micro-reseau qui est en cours de deploiement dans le batiment Drahi-X Innovation Center (campus de l'Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau, France), afin qu'il serve de banc d'essai pour differents scenarios de gestion de l'energie. Le systeme concu presente une architecture de bus commun a courant continu, ou l'electricite est librement echangee entre tous les elements du micro-reseau. Le nanoreseau est equipe d'un systeme de mesure, de moyens de deconnexion pour chaque element, ainsi que de la capacite de controler, dans une certaine mesure, la puissance transitant par la batterie. Le suivi de la consommation en temps reel - a l'echelle - du batiment Drahi-X est egalement possible. Certaines capacites de surveillance et de controle a distance sont incluses, ainsi que la collecte de certaines variables meteorologiques. Plusieurs mois de donnees sur les flux d'energie ont ete rassembles, qui ont servi a differentes analyses concernant les interactions electriques entre les elements du nanoreseau. Cela a permis d'ameliorer la comprehension de ce type de systemes afin de proposer des solutions appropriees au probleme d'incertitude mentionne ci-dessus. Dans une etape suivante, le sujet des previsions d'irradiation solaire est aborde. Profitant de l'expertise du laboratoire meteorologique SIRTA dans le domaine des previsions meteorologiques (egalement situe sur le campus de l'ecole Polytechnique), un travail de collaboration a ete realise afin d'evaluer la fiabilite des previsions d'irradiation solaire au jour le jour, qui seront utilisees pour produire des previsions de production d'energie photovoltaique. Pour cela, une methode d'assemblage d'analogues est proposee pour obtenir des informations probabilistes a partir des previsions deterministes susmentionnees, afin d'evaluer leur eventuelle valeur ajoutee pour un systeme de gestion de l'energie. La methode d'assemblage d'analogues proposee a demontre des performances superieures par rapport aux methodes de prevision probabilistes de reference, telles que la persistance, la climatologie mensuelle et une methode de prevision probabiliste bien connue et disponible dans le commerce du Centre europeen pour les previsions meteorologiques a moyen terme (ECMWF par son nom en anglais). Elle a ete evaluee sur la base du score de competence quantile decompose en fiabilite, resolution et incertitude, qui sont des parametres de pointe pour l'evaluation des previsions probabilistes. En outre, les previsions quantile obtenues a partir des ensembles d'analogues se sont averees etre une solution interessante pour reduire l'incertitude des previsions, car elles fournissent des informations sur le bias de l'erreur de prevision. Si elle est bien choisie, cette fonctionnalite pourrait etre benefique pour les taches de planification des ressources effectuees par un systeme de gestion de l'energie, comme l'a prouve la derniere partie de ce travail. (auteur)Original Title
Prevision de l'incertitude liee a la production d'electricite photovoltaique pour l'amelioration de l'efficacite de la gestion energetique des micro-reseaux
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Source
28 Sep 2020; 221 p; 110 refs.; Available from the INIS Liaison Officer for France, see the INIS website for current contact and E-mail addresses; These de Doctorat en Ingenierie
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Miscellaneous
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Thesis/Dissertation
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ALGORITHMS, ANALOG SYSTEMS, CARBON FOOTPRINT, COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS, DETERMINISTIC ESTIMATION, ENERGY MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS, FORECASTING, LOAD MANAGEMENT, METEOROLOGY, PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER PLANTS, POWER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS, PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION, REAL TIME SYSTEMS, RELIABILITY, SMART GRIDS, SOLAR FLUX, TASK SCHEDULING
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