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AbstractAbstract
[en] China is the world's largest CO2 emitter. However, China's energy related CO2 emissions have been flat or declining since 2014. This led to much optimism that China's emissions growth was finally being reversed, and that it could potentially over-achieve on its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). On the back of that, global emissions could potentially peak in the next few years, as required by the Paris Agreement. However, in 2017 China's CO2 emissions began to rise again, and there are indications that this trend is continuing in 2018. What is causing this increase is therefore of paramount importance. In addition, the question of whether this rising trend can be reversed in the next few years is of crucial importance to whether a rapid global peak of emissions can be achieved. The recent performance of China in terms of addressing climate change and transitioning its energy sector has been somewhat flattered by an un-reported economic slowdown in the period 2013 to 2016. Looking at the energy data for the last three years, it seems implausible that China's economy has grown as fast as reported. Recent stimulus has reversed this slowdown and economic recovery has driven a rapid growth in energy demand in 2017. In the future, it seems likely that economic growth rates will decline moderately year on year, on the back of declining growth rates of investment and industrial production. This should assist in keeping energy demand growth in check, although not to the extent seen in 2013 to 2016. If energy demand growth can be slowed in the coming years compared to the growth rate seen in 2017, it is likely that the supply growth of low-carbon energy would be sufficient to keep emissions growth in check. On balance, it appears likely that the next few years will see approximately stagnant emissions in China, with alternating years of slight growth or slight decline. A definitive peak and declining trend thereafter still appears some way off. China is still well on track to achieve its 2020 and 2030 climate policy commitments, in particular the target to reduce the carbon intensity of GDP by 60-65% by 2030. Indeed, it still seems likely that China would overachieve this target. It appears still likely that China would peak its CO2 emissions before 2030. (author)
[fr]
Apres trois annees consecutives de declin sans precedent, les premieres estimations de 2017 sont porteuses de mauvaises nouvelles: les emissions de CO2 liees a l'energie en Chine semblent avoir augmente. Et des estimations provisoires pour les premiers mois de 2018 suggerent que cette tendance se poursuit. Est-il temps de renoncer a l'espoir qu'il est encore possible de controler les emissions de CO2? Pour pouvoir repondre a cette question, il faut comprendre ce qui a entraine cette hausse des emissions en 2017. Les performances recentes de la Chine en matiere de lutte contre le changement climatique et de transition energetique ont ete quelque peu avantagees par un ralentissement economique non signale intervenu au cours de la periode 2013-2016. Il apparait impossible, au vu des donnees energetiques des trois dernieres annees, que l'economie chinoise ait connu une croissance aussi rapide que rapporte. Une relance intervenue recemment a inverse cette orientation a la baisse, et la reprise economique a entraine une augmentation rapide de la demande energetique en 2017. a l'avenir, il semble probable que les taux de croissance economique diminueront moderement d'une annee sur l'autre, en consequence de la baisse des taux de croissance de l'investissement et de la production industrielle. Ceci devrait aider au maintien sous controle de la croissance de la demande energetique, sans toutefois atteindre une mesure comparable a celle rencontree en 2013-2016. Si la croissance de la demande energetique peut etre ralentie dans les annees a venir par rapport au taux d'augmentation vu en 2017, l'accroissement de l'offre en matiere d'energie bas carbone pourrait suffire a garder l'augmentation des emissions sous controle. Tout bien considere, il apparait probable que les prochaines annees connaitront des emissions a peu pres stables en Chine, avec une alternance d'annees de legere hausse ou de legere diminution. La perspective d'un veritable pic suivi d'une tendance perenne a la decroissance semble encore quelque peu lointaine. La Chine reste sur la bonne voie pour atteindre ses engagements en matiere de politique climatique pour les annees 2020 et 2030, en particulier l'objectif de reduire l'intensite carbone du PIB de 60-65 % d'ici a 2030, qui pourrait meme etre depasse. Et la Chine pourrait atteindre le pic de ses emissions de CO2 avant 2030. (auteur)Original Title
Augmentation des emissions CO2 en 2017: que se passe-t-il en Chine?
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Jun 2018; 4 p; 4 refs.; Available from the INIS Liaison Officer for France, see the INIS website for current contact and E-mail addresses
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