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AbstractAbstract
[en] The sharp rebound in oil prices since the second half of 2020, to nearly $70 per barrel in May 2021, represents only a temporary respite for oil-dependent African economies that must change their economic model very quickly. The Covid-19 crisis has weakened the oil economies of the Gulf of Guinea even more than those of other African countries, aggravating a situation that had already become critical as of 2014-2016, the previous period of oil price crisis. While all of Africa's Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) producers entered in recession in 2020, other historically low-volume producers were much less affected by the economic consequences of the pandemic and avoided economic recession. With oil reserves plummeting, depleted deposits, and high production costs, almost all of the Gulf of Guinea's oil-producing countries need to reform their hydrocarbon sector to try to retain or attract companies that can make large investments as appropriate. This is the case for Cameroon, Gabon, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Cote d'Ivoire, Angola, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa, this is also true for Sudan and South Sudan, and even for countries with relatively small deposits (Niger and Chad). Finally, it concerns production areas located in deep or very deep offshore fields (Nigeria and Angola)
[fr]
Le vif rebond des prix du petrole depuis le deuxieme semestre 2020, tutoyant en mai 2021 les 70 dollars par baril, ne represente qu'un repit ponctuel pour les economies africaines ultra-dependantes aux ressources petrolieres qui doivent tres vite faire evoluer leur modele. La crise du COVID-19 a encore davantage affaibli les economies petrolieres du golfe de Guinee que celles des autres pays africains, aggravant une situation deja devenue critique depuis 2014-2016, lors de la precedente periode de crise des prix du petrole. Si l'ensemble des pays producteurs africains membres de l'Organisation des pays exportateurs de petrole (OPEP) sont entres en recession en 2020, les autres pays historiquement producteurs de faibles volumes ont ete beaucoup moins touches par les consequences economiques de la pandemie et ont evite la recession economique. Avec des reserves petrolieres en chute, des gisements en depletion et des couts de production eleves, la quasi-totalite des pays producteurs du golfe de Guinee doivent reformer leur secteur des hydrocarbures pour tenter de retenir ou d'attirer le cas echeant des societes capables de consentir a de lourds investissements. C'est le cas du Cameroun, Gabon, Congo, Guinee equatoriale, Cote d'Ivoire, Angola, Republique democratique du Congo (RDC). Ailleurs en Afrique subsaharienne, la situation est similaire au Soudan et Soudan du Sud ou alors dans les zones aux gisements de relative petite taille (Niger, Tchad). Cela concerne aussi les zones de production situees en offshore profond voire tres profond (Nigeria, Angola)Original Title
Consequences economiques et politiques de la chute de la production petroliere en Afrique subsaharienne a l'horizon 2030
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Jun 2021; 72 p; ISBN 979-10-373-0366-0;
; ISBN 979-10-373-0381-3;
; Available from the INIS Liaison Officer for France, see the INIS website for current contact and E-mail addresses


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Miscellaneous
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AFRICA, CAPACITY, DISEASE INCIDENCE, DIVERSIFICATION, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC IMPACT, EXPENDITURES, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, INCOME, LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS, MARKET, NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY, OPEC, PETROLEUM INDUSTRY, POLITICAL ASPECTS, PRODUCTION, PROGRAM MANAGEMENT, SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS, WELLHEAD PRICES
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