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AbstractAbstract
[en] The shocks from Covid-19 likely to affect energy and the climate are multiple and unprecedented in scale and scope. Shocks from collapsing prices due to plummeting and then paralyzed demand combined with overproduction: this is the case for oil, but also to a lesser extent for electricity and gas. Other raw materials are also being affected. Shocks to investments, because oil as well as electricity companies are experiencing dramatic falls in earnings while waiting for the peak of the pandemic to pass. They are cutting spending and revising or postponing projects. Jobs and smaller company survival are under threat. Geopolitical shocks with the March collapse of the OPEC+ alliance, tensions between Russia and Saudi Arabia on the one hand, and between United States (US) and Saudi Arabia on the other hand. Both Russia and Saudi Arabia can withstand a year of low prices while still suffering pains, yet have an interest in halting the rise in US crude exports. These tensions come as Mohammed bin Salman seeks to make his succession to the throne safe, as Donald Trump wants to be re-elected and as Vladimir Putin adopts a strong posture and can now lead Russia... until 2036. The economic, political and social stability of numerous poorly-diversified oil, gas and metals producer countries is under threat. Shocks to public policies and climate governance: while greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) are falling, they may well rise with an economic upturn, whereas cuts of -8% per year to 2030 are required to be on a global warming path of +1.5 deg. C. In the European Union (EU), the Green Deal agenda has been disrupted (the Climate Law and 2030 objectives notably). Some want to bury it in the name of realism. Carbon prices in the Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) are plunging, making pollution cheaper and destroying investment signals. Support capabilities for low carbon technologies will be more constrained. Across the world, support for other low carbon technologies may suffer - though ultra-competitive solar power may be spared. The COP26 climate conference is postponed as will be the COP15 on biodiversity. Faced with such shocks, which are still unfolding, some major tendencies and areas of re-balancing can be outlined
[fr]
Dans le domaine de l'energie et du climat, les chocs lies au COVID-19 sont multiples et inedits dans leur ampleur et horizons. Choc des prix du petrole, du gaz et de l'electricite qui s'effondrent du fait d'une demande paralysee et d'une offre surabondante. Choc des investissements en net recul, et de l'emploi, dans un contexte de baisse des revenus. Choc geopolitique, avec les tensions entre grands producteurs et l'effondrement de l'alliance OPEP+ dont les membres ont ete pris de court par la paralysie des grandes economies. Choc des politiques publiques, car si les emissions sont en baisse, l'urgence n'est plus le climat et Trump prefigure de ce que peut etre le pire des scenarios: deconstruction des normes environnementales et relance tous azimutsOriginal Title
L'energie et le climat face aux chocs du Covid-19. A quitte ou double?
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Source
9 Apr 2020; 10 p; ISBN 979-10-373-0156-7;
; ISBN 979-10-373-0155-0;
; Available from the INIS Liaison Officer for France, see the INIS website for current contact and E-mail addresses


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