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Rech, Olivier; Duterne, Hugo; Blaizot, Marc; Lehner, Alain; Carriere, Anais; Hiche, Camilo
The Shift Project, 16-18 rue de Budapest, 75009 Paris (France)2021
The Shift Project, 16-18 rue de Budapest, 75009 Paris (France)2021
AbstractAbstract
[en] Carried out by France's leading oil experts and commissioned by the French Defence Ministry, the analysis concludes that total oil supplies to the EU are likely to drop by 10 to 20% over the 2030's, as compared to its current 2019 level. This outlook remains valid even when considering the highest predictions on 'light tight oil' (LTO) production in the United States, mostly because there is no reserve large enough to make up for the current production decline. The study from The Shift Project analyses the outlook for the future oil production from the 16 main EU current suppliers by 2030 and 2050. Although the EU's crude oil imports had fairly diversified origins in the early 1990's, the share of imports from thee 16 countries went from 65% in 1990 to 95% in 2018. Gathering most of the world's major oil producers, these countries include by order of importance: Russia, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Norway, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Libya, Azerbaijan, Iran, the United Kingdom, the United States, Mexico, Algeria, Angola, Kuwait, and Egypt. Based on a critical assessment of the data from the Norwegian company Rystad Energy, a strong reference in the fossil-fuel industry, the results show that: All 16 countries show a declining trend in new reserve discoveries, and the size of new fields in operation also tends to decrease overtime. 14 out of the 16 examined countries demonstrate a decline in production or a level lower than the maximum level observed in the past. The depletion rate of the accumulated discoveries to this date in the 16 countries is close to 70%, and the time lag between identification and development is increasing is all countries. This is due to the scarcity, over the last ten to thirty years, of significant new oil fields with a quality level or geographical location that would justify development within the time frame previously in force in the industry. Outside LTO resources from the US, the outlook for the aggregated production from the 16 countries in the scope of the report is a decrease of about 12% in 2030 compared to 2019 levels, and potentially a sharper decline before 2030, if economic and operational constraints related to the exploitation of increasingly smaller fields are more significant than estimated. As of the 2030's, there is no development, whether through new discoveries or potential exploration, that will be able to stop the decline in aggregated crude oil production. This trend appears irreversible. As regards LTO production in the US, many uncertainties remain. The study includes a high and a low trajectory, both showing a growth potential lower than in the 2010's and a decline in the 2030's. This confirms that the predictions of the study remain valid even when considering the role of LTO. The EU has so far not assessed the risks and potential impacts from these projections. Nevertheless, such an assessment is important since in addition to the decrease of global oil supplies, the EU's share of the global market will likely be affected by two other factors. First, the increase in domestic consumption in many exporting countries which is gradually eroding their export capacity, and thus exacerbating the risk of a squeeze on net importing countries. Second, the emergence of new, large consumer countries on the global oil market, like China and India, who are competing for crude oil supplies with developed countries, whose demand for crude oil remains massive. For reference, the EU currently imports about 10% of global oil production, similar to China. These prospects from major oil suppliers could expose the EU and its Member States to new and unassessed risks, should the pace of 'peak oil' be faster than the impact of EU policies to reduce oil consumption
[fr]
Elaboree par des experts de tres haut niveau, l'etude du Shift Project analyse les perspectives de production future des 16 principaux pays fournisseurs actuels de l'UE, aux horizons 2030 et 2050. Parmi ces 16 pays (tous exterieurs a l'UE) figurent la plupart des plus grands producteurs mondiaux de petrole. Par ordre d'importance actuelle pour l'UE: Russie, Irak, Arabie Saoudite, Norvege, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Libye, Azerbaidjan, Iran, Royaume-Uni, etats-Unis, Mexique, Algerie, Angola, Koweit et egypte. Ce rapport s'appuie sur une analyse critique de la base de donnees petrolieres de la societe norvegienne Rystad Energy, laquelle figure parmi les sources de reference au sein de l'industrie des hydrocarbures. Le petrole reste la premiere source d'energie mondiale. Il fournit plus de 90 % de l'energie necessaire aux transports. Son utilisation a grande echelle a permis le developpement economique depuis un siecle. L'Union europeenne importe un 10eme de la production mondiale de petrole, soit a peu pres autant que la Chine. Dans le monde, 10 pays concentrent environ 80 % des reserves. La plus grande part de l'approvisionnement en petrole brut repose ainsi sur un nombre restreint de grands producteurs. La production petroliere totale des principaux fournisseurs actuels de l'Union europeenne risque de s'etablir dans le courant de la decennie 2030 a un niveau inferieur de 10 a 20 % a celui atteint en 2019. Faute de reserves suffisantes pour compenser le declin de la production existante, ce risque existe y compris en prenant en compte une hypothese haute concernant l'evolution aux Etats-Unis de la production de 'petrole de schiste' (Light tight oil, LTO). Parmi les 16 pays etudies: tous les pays presentent un declin tendanciel des decouvertes, depuis une date plus ou moins recente selon le cas; 14 pays presentent un declin ou un niveau de la production inferieur au maximum observe dans le passe; le taux de depletion du total des decouvertes cumulees a ce jour des 16 pays est proche de 70 %; le delai entre decouverte et mise en production est croissant dans tous les pays etudies, sans exception; la taille des champs decouverts et mis en production tend a decroitre au fil du temps, le corollaire etant que le nombre de champs en exploitation est en hausse, continue et parfois forte, dans tous les pays etudies. Hors LTO aux Etats-Unis, les perspectives de production agregee de petrole brut des 16 principaux pays fournisseurs conduisent a envisager: une baisse tendancielle de l'ordre de 12 % en 2030 par rapport au niveau atteint en 2019; un declin potentiellement plus severe avant 2030, si les contraintes operationnelles et economiques de developpement de champs de taille de plus en en plus reduite s'averent superieures a ce qui est estime et retenu dans le cadre du diagnostic de cette etude. A partir de la decennie 2030, aucun potentiel de developpement (champs decouverts a ce jour ou potentiel d'exploration) ne parait a meme d'enrayer le declin de la production agregee de brut, qui devrait presenter un caractere irreversible, hors LTO aux Etats-Unis. L'analyse des principaux facteurs d'incertitudes relatifs a la production de LTO aux Etats-Unis conduit a retenir deux estimations de trajectoire, haute et basse, refletant chacune un potentiel de croissance plus faible qu'au cours de la decennie 2010, puis un declin attendu durant la decennie 2030. La Chine, l'Inde et d'autres pays a fort potentiel de croissance se trouvent en concurrence pour leurs approvisionnements en brut avec les pays developpes, dont la demande de brut demeure massive. L'augmentation de la consommation domestique de bon nombre de pays exportateurs tend en outre a reduire graduellement leur capacite d'exportation, exacerbant ainsi le risque de contraintes s'exercant sur les pays importateurs netsOriginal Title
Approvisionnement petrolier futur de l'Union Europeenne: etat des reserves et perspectives de production des principaux pays fournisseurs - Mai 2021. Rapport du Shift Project, pour la Direction Generale des Relations Internationales et de la Strategie (DGRIS), Ministere des Armees
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Secondary Subject
Source
27 May 2021; 243 p; 23 refs.; Available from the INIS Liaison Officer for France, see the INIS website for current contact and E-mail addresses
Record Type
Miscellaneous
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Country of publication
BITUMINOUS MATERIALS, CARBONACEOUS MATERIALS, DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, ECONOMICS, ENERGY MODELS, ENERGY SOURCES, EUROPE, FORECASTING, FOSSIL FUELS, FUELS, GEOLOGIC DEPOSITS, INDUSTRY, INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS, MATERIALS, MINERAL RESOURCES, OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES, PETROLEUM DEPOSITS, PRICES, RESOURCES, ROCKS, SEDIMENTARY ROCKS, SHALES, TRADE, WESTERN EUROPE
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