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[en] With the approach of the year 2012, a new round of international negotiations has energized the entire climate change community. With this, analyses on sector-based emissions reduction and mitigation options will provide the necessary information to form the debate. In order to assess the CO2 emissions reduction potential of China's electricity sector, this research employs three scenarios based on the 'long-range energy alternative planning system' (LEAP) model to simulate the different development paths in this sector. The baseline scenario, the current policy scenario, and the new policy scenario seek to gradually increase the extent of industrial restructuring and technical advancement. Results imply that energy consumption and CO2 emission in China's electricity sector will rise rapidly in all scenarios until 2030-triple or quadruple the 2000 level; however, through structural adjustment in China's electricity sector, and through implementing technical mitigation measures, various degrees of abatement can be achieved. These reductions range from 85 to 350 million tons CO2 per year-figures that correspond to different degrees of cost and investment. Demand side management and circulating fluidized bed combustion (CFBC) (ranked in order) are employed prior to use to realize emissions reduction, followed by supercritical plants and the renovation of conventional thermal power plants. In the long term, nuclear and hydropower will play the dominant role in contributing to emissions reduction. It is also suggested that a 'self-restraint' reduction commitment should be employed to help contribute to the reduction of emission intensity, an avenue that is more practical for China in light of its current development phase. Setting the year 2000 as the base year, the intensity reduction target could possibly range from 4.2% to 19.4%, dependent on the implementation effectiveness of various mitigation options
[en] To improve the reliability of sectoral mitigation potential and cost analysis, this paper made an in-depth exploration into China's electricity sector's thermal efficiency and inner structure. It is found that unlike what many literatures portray, China is actually among the world's leaders in coal-fired power plants' generating efficiencies; besides, although there are still numerous small and inefficient generating units in the current generation fleet, many of them are in fact playing important roles in supporting local economic development, meeting peak load needs, balancing heat and electricity supply and providing job opportunities to the local economy, therefore their existence does not necessarily mean low-cost mitigation potential. Given the efficiency and structural characteristics of China's electricity sector, it is pointed out that some other mitigation options, such as demand side management, IGCC and renewable energy as well as the break-through of CCS technology may play an even more important role in emission reduction. Considering the significant lock-in effects in electricity sector, it is warned that China, if continues putting majority investment in large and advanced coal-fired generating units, will face another round of chasing-after for the new and advanced renewable generation technologies. Therefore China should put more efforts in renewable generation technologies now.
[en] This study has been created in order to better inform climate policy recommendations for China through the study of emissions reduction potential and mitigation opportunities in the major emission sectors in the country. The LEAP model along with three scenarios has been employed in this study. The study has projected that under all scenarios, China's emissions in major sectors will increase. However, through the current sustainable development strategy and even more aggressive emission reduction policies, an annual average of 201-486 million metric tons (MMT) of emissions could be reduced. The cost analysis shows that opportunities are available to achieve significant additional emission reductions at reasonable rates. Besides the results on mitigation opportunities in each sector, this research also explores sectoral preference when determining policies from different perspectives. This study concludes that China's 'unilateral actions' since 2000 should be recognized and encouraged. If further emission reduction were required, sector-based mitigation policies would be a very good option and selecting proper policy-making perspective(s) and identifying the most cost-effective mitigation measures within sector and across sectors would be the key information needed to devise these policies
[en] Globalization enables the transfer of impacts on water availability. We argue that the threat should be evaluated not only by decrease of quantity, but more importantly by the degradation of water quality in exporting countries. Grouping the world into fourteen regions, this paper establishes a multi-region input-output framework to calculate the nitrogen-related grey water footprint and a water quality-induced scarcity index caused by pollution, for the period of 1995 to 2009. It is discovered that grey water embodied in international trade has been growing faster than total grey water footprint. China, the USA and India were the three top grey water exporters which accounted for more than half the total traded grey water. Dilemma rose when China and India were facing highest grey water scarcity. The EU and the USA were biggest grey water importers that alleviated their water stress by outsourcing water pollution. A structural decomposition analysis is conducted to study the drivers to the evolution of virtual flows of grey water under globalization during the period of 1995 to 2009. The results show that despite the technical progress that offset the growth of traded grey water, structural effects under globalization including both evolution in the globalized economic system and consumption structure, together with consumption volume made a positive contribution. It is found that the structural effect intensified the pollution-induced water scarcity of exporters as it generally increased all nations’ imported grey water while resulting in increases in only a few nations’ exported grey water, such as Brazil, China and Indonesia. At last, drawing from the ‘cap-and-trade’ and ‘boarder-tax-adjustment’ schemes, we propose policy recommendations that ensure water security and achieve environmentally sustainable trade from both the sides of production and consumption. (letter)
[en] China is the world's second largest greenhouse gas emitter, and emissions from the road transport sector represent one of the fastest growing GHG sources in China. Taking previous research on China's projected future vehicle ownership and future CO2 emissions in the transport sector as a starting point, this paper reviews all recent environmental policies relating to the automobile industry and employs a scenario analysis to estimate different emissions inventories for different development strategies. The new policy scenario considers all possible mitigation options available to the road transport sector from a bottom up perspective and examines the effects for fuel efficiency improvement and the cost of these mitigation options - vehicle technology improvement, bus rapid transit system and fuel switching, through which the carbon dioxide emissions reduction potential is estimated. Not only does this paper indicate that a large emissions reduction potential exists in China's road transport sector, but it implies that vehicle technology improvement, especially engine technology is likely to be the most effective means to meet emissions reduction targets. This paper concludes by identifying key barriers to implementing those options in China and deduces the technical, financial and institutional aspects of the demand in China for national capacity building and international aid in order to achieve the emissions reduction goals
[en] The sector-based decisions in Bali Action Plan have made 'cooperative sectoral approaches and sector-specific actions' one of the most promising ways to achieve substantial progress in technology transfer. This paper makes a more fundamental examination of the intrinsic characteristics, ongoing mitigation efforts, and mitigation difficulties and barriers in China's principle energy-intensive sectors, hoping to lay a foundation of using 'cooperative sectoral approaches and sector-specific actions' to enhance international technology development and transfer. It is found that great mitigation achievements had been made in coal-fired power generation, cement and aluminium sectors through various policies. About 420 million tons (Mt), 234 and 48 Mt of CO2-e have been reduced, respectively, from 2001 to 2007. However, factors such as fast-growing development needs, low-quality resources and carbon-intensive energy mix, huge disparities within sector, poor technology, equipment and financial status of plants, low level of employers' abilities as well as huge social costs are causing big difficulties and barriers to further mitigate sectoral greenhouse gas in China. Therefore it is strongly advocated that the existing and possible new sectoral approaches try to consider these factual barriers as comprehensively as possible. Finally the paper concludes with two fields of future work to do.
[en] As the largest CO2 emitter in the world, China has made great achievements in carbon mitigation over the past eight years (2005–2013). Through a comprehensive and detailed overview of China's carbon mitigation strategies, this paper presents China's carbon mitigation achievements and strategies, including adjustment to the industrial structure, saving energy, optimizing energy structure, increasing forest carbon sinks, building foundational capacity, innovating technologies and practicing mitigation efforts in localities and sectors. Having been in place for some years already, the results of many of these measures and policies are now plateauing. China is facing challenges including inevitable emissions growth, shrinking of mitigation potential from technological progress, difficulty in further adjusting the industrial structure and economic development mode, continued dominance of coal in the energy mix, local governments’ reluctance to adopt measures to reduce carbon emissions, etc. Through policy diagnosis it is found that the root causes of these problems and challenges are the facts that policy-making is done primarily on the production side and there is an absence of co-benefits in the decision-making process. Therefore, it is recommended that translating mitigation targets to the consumption level and mainstreaming mitigations’ co-benefits into decision-making processes are needed to quickly enhance the results of mitigation work in China. - Highlights: • Key aspects of China's carbon mitigation strategies were outlined. • China's carbon mitigation achievements were summarized. • Challenges to meet further mitigation were investigated. • Strategic suggestions to quickly enhance China's mitigation ambition were given
[en] Highlights: • An integrated framework for inter-sector linkage analysis was developed. • ISI and CMI CO2 emissions experienced a rapid growth after 2002. • Production efficiency was improved substantially in ISI and CMI in recent years. • The construction sector induced huge CO2 emissions though forward linkages. • Machinery and transport manufacturing become significant sources of CO2 emissions. - Abstract: CO2 emissions mitigation in iron and steel industry (ISI) and construction material industry (CMI), including cement, glass, and ceramics materials, is crucial for the realization of CO2 emission peak targets in China, given their great contributions to China’s emission structure. Great transitions have occurred in the two industries recently, including scale expansion, efficiency improvement, and changes in production and demand structures. By developing an integrated framework for inter-sector linkage analysis, we investigated the impact of recent transitions in the ISI and CMI on China’s CO2 emissions between 1992 and 2012. Results show that the CO2 emissions from ISI and CMI increased by 4.2 and 6.8 times over two decades, respectively, and the two key sectors have significantly higher backward and forward linkages than average in terms of CO2 emissions. The internal efficiency improvement of the ISI and CMI are crucial factors curbing the rising CO2 emissions in these two sectors. The total CO2 intensity of the ISI and CMI have declined by 78% and 68%, separately, cumulatively reducing 517 Mt and 704 Mt CO2 emissions during the studied period. The external final demand growth and its structure changes of the ISI and CMI have had a significant impact on their CO2 emissions. The construction sector is the greatest consumer, responsible for 53% and 86% emissions increase of ISI and CMI during 2002–2012, respectively. Emerging manufacturing and machinery also became substantial emissions sources, generating 536 Mt CO2 emissions in 2012 by consuming iron and steel products. Based on these findings, policy recommendations for CO2 emissions mitigation in the two key sectors and their related sectors are also discussed.
[en] Highlights: • 24.7% of China’s final energy consumption in 2012 is caused by household consumption. • Energy linkages between supply side and demand side are shown in a Sankey diagram. • Adopting low-carbon consumption and decreasing energy intensity can conserve energy. • Energy conservation potential of several household consumption behaviors is revealed. - Abstract: The household sector has become the second largest consumer of final energy, ranking only next to the industrial sector in China. Except for the direct energy consumption of the household sector, people’s consumption activities also indirectly affect the energy consumption of multiple production sectors. Previous studies have shed light upon consumer-oriented energy consumption and carbon emission, however, the critical problem of sector-to-sector energy linkages between supply side and demand side has not been fully addressed. Besides, there also lacks sufficient research on the energy conservation potential of residents’ lifestyle change. This paper investigates the direct and indirect impact of household consumption activities on energy consumption in China from the consumers’ lifestyle perspective based on the input-output analysis. The relationship between household energy consumption and industrial energy consumption and the effect of lifestyle change on energy conservation are also considered. It is estimated that China’s energy consumption caused by household consumption activities in 2012 is 29141.97 PJ in total, which accounts for 24.7% of the total final energy consumption. The indirect energy consumption of household consumption activities is 1.35 times more than the direct energy consumption. Housing activities cause the most indirect energy consumption, and the smelting and pressing industry of ferrous metal is the most energy-consuming industrial sector influenced by household consumption. We also find that adopting low-carbon consumption pattern and accelerating the decrease of energy intensity are both effective means to reduce the total energy consumption by scenario analysis. Finally the energy conservation potential by comparing different types of household consumption behaviors is revealed to make policy makers form vivid impressions on the importance of demand side regulation.
[en] There are continuous debates around the question of whether CDM really contributes to sustainable development (SD) in host countries. Employment impact is an essential indicator of SD. Based on an input-out approach this research builds a quantitative assessment model to evaluate the employment impacts of CDM. Both direct and indirect jobs creation and job losses of CDM projects in the power sector registered by the end of 2011 are calculated by project types and power grids where the project is located. Results of this study show that, although the above mentioned CDM projects causes about 99,000 net direct job losses, they also create about 3.08 million indirect jobs, resulting in the gross employment of CDM to be about 2.98 million. Thereof, hydro projects induce both direct and indirect job losses, which comes to approximately 0.89 million. Solar projects have the most potential since they own the highest indirect jobs created by one GWh generation, about 104 jobs/GWh. - Highlights: • An input–output model was built for assessment of CDM projects' employment impact; • CDM projects create direct and indirect jobs while cause some losses in short. • Significant indirect job gains of CDM projects were found; • Solar projects cause 104 jobs/GWh in average, ranking as the highest contributor