Results 1 - 8 of 8
Results 1 - 8 of 8. Search took: 0.012 seconds
|Sort by: date | relevance|
[en] Supply shocks in the global gas market may affect countries differently, as the market is regionally interlinked but not perfectly integrated. Additionally, high supply-side concentration may expose countries to market power in different ways. To evaluate the strategic position of importing countries with regard to gas supplies, we disentangle import price components into increasing and decreasing factors. Due to the complexity of the interrelations in the global gas market, we use an equilibrium model programmed as a mixed complementarity problem (MCP) and simulate the blockage of LNG ows through the Strait of Hormuz. This enables us to account for the oligopolistic nature and the asymmetry of the gas supply. We find that Japan faces the most severe price increases, as the Japanese gas demand completely relies on LNG supply. In contrast, European countries such as the UK benefit from good interconnection to the continental pipeline system and domestic pricetaking production, both of which help to mitigate an increase in physical costs of supply as well as in the exercise of market power.
[en] The German Energiewende's potential effects on the reliability of electricity supply as well as the corresponding economic consequences have recently entered both the political and scientific debate. However, empirical evidence of power outage costs in Germany is rather scarce. Following a macroeconomic approach, we analyse the economic costs imposed by potential power interruptions in Germany. Investigating a rich data set on industry and households we estimate both Values of Lost Load (VoLLs) and associated costs of power interruptions for different German regions and sectors and every hour of the year. This disaggregated approach allows for conclusions for optimal load shedding in case of technical necessity and the economic efficiency of measures to improve security of supply. We find that interruption costs vary significantly over time, between sectors and regions. Peaking on midday of a Monday in December at 750 Mio Euro per hour, the average of total national outage costs amount to approximately 430 Mio Euro per hour. The industrial sectors facing the highest outage costs are the machinery and transport equipment sectors. Their aggregated hourly outage costs average out at approximately 20 Mio Euro. Our results emphasize the prominent regional aspect of the German Energiewende as the regions with the highest estimated cost of interruptions in South and West Germany coincide with the areas which face nuclear power plant shut downs in the near future.
[en] In principle cross-border electricity transmission can be accounted for by price differences between the relevant electricity exchanges. For any given level of electricity demand the price of electricity at the individual electricity exchanges is primarily influenced by fuel prices, power plant availability and the feed-in of electricity from renewable energy, and differences in electricity prices in turn are a determinant of cross-border transmission. Some may have been surprised by the high level of electricity export in the spring of 2011, only shortly after 8 GW of power plant capacity had been shut down as part of the nuclear energy phaseout. What in fact explains the existing export surplus are the continuing excess of power plant capacity, an efficient power plant fleet compared with other European countries and the continuing growth of renewable energies in Germany.
[en] By 2050, the European Union aims to reduce greenhouse gases by more than 80%. The EU member states have therefore declared to strongly increase the share of renewable energy sources (RES-E) in the next decades. Given a large deployment of wind and solar capacities, there are two major impacts on electricity systems: First, the electricity system must be flexible enough to cope with the volatile RES-E generation, i.e., ramp up supply or ramp down demand on short notice. Second, sufficient back-up capacities are needed during times with low feed-in from wind and solar capacities. This paper analyzes whether there is a need for additional incentive mechanisms for flexibility in electricity markets with a high share of renewables. For this purpose, we simulate the development of the European electricity markets up to the year 2050 using a linear investment and dispatch optimization model. Flexibility requirements are implemented in the model via ramping constraints and provision of balancing power. We found that an increase in fluctuating renewables has a tremendous impact on the volatility of the residual load and consequently on the flexibility requirements. However, any market design that incentivizes investments in least (total system) cost generation investment does not need additional incentives for flexibility. The main trigger for investing in flexible resources is the achievable full load hours and the need for backup capacity. In a competitive market, the cost-efficient technologies that are most likely to be installed, i.e., gas-fired power plants or flexible CCS plants, provide flexibility as a by-product. Under the condition of system adequacy, flexibility never poses a challenge in a cost-minimal capacity mix. Therefore, any market design incentivizing investments in efficient generation thus provides flexibility as an inevi complement. - Highlights: • We analyze flexibility in electricity systems with a high share of renewables. • For scenario analysis, we use a cost-minimizing invest and dispatch model. • Volatile renewables lead to an increase in flexibility requirements in the system. • Utilization rates seem more important than flexibility requirements. • A cost efficient capacity mix provides flexibility as a complementary good.
[en] The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident in 2011 led to some drastic reactions in Germany, in particular an immediate shut-down of older nuclear power plants. This event is therefore often seen as a turning point, or a major accelerator for the German Energiewende. We investigate the short term effects, but also put the event into a longer, 10-year perspective. This shows that hardly any trend in the energy policy was strongly affected by policy decisions of 2011. Major trends are the increase of renewable electricity sources, the phase out of nuclear, a slight increase in energy efficiency, while total energy consumption and also greenhouse gas emissions remained stable in the decade 2005-2015/16. We also provide some tentative explanations for these developments.
[en] In 2007, Germany changed network access regulation in the natural gas sector and introduced a so-called entry-exit system. The re-regulation's spot market effects remain to be examined. We use cointegration analysis and a state space model with time-varying coefficients to study the development of natural gas spot prices in the two major trading hubs in Germany and the interlinked Dutch spot market. To analyse information efficiency in more detail, the state space model is extended to an error correction model. Overall, our results suggest a reasonable degree of price convergence between the corresponding hubs. However, allowing for time-variant adjustment processes, the remaining price differentials are only partly explained by transportation costs, indicating capacity constraints. Nonetheless, market efficiency in terms of information processing has increased considerably among Germany and The Netherlands.
[en] In order to overcome the perverse incentives of excessive maintenance reductions and insufficient network investments arising with incentive regulation of electricity distribution companies, regulators throughout Europe have started regulating service quality. In this paper, we explore the impact of incorporating customers' willingness-to-pay for service quality in benchmarking models on cost efficiency of distribution networks. Therefore, we examine the case of Norway, which features this approach to service quality regulation. We use the data envelopment analysis technique to analyse the effectiveness of such regulatory instruments. Moreover, we discuss the extent to which this indirect regulatory instrument motivates a socially desired service quality level. The results indicate that internalising external or social cost of service quality does not seem to have played an important role in improving cost efficiency in Norwegian distribution utilities.
[en] Since the 1990s, efficiency and benchmarking analysis has increasingly been used in network utilities research and regulation. A recurrent concern is the effect of observable environmental factors that are beyond the influence of firms and unobserved factors that are not identifiable on measured cost and quality performance of firms. This paper analyses the effect of observed geographic and weather factors and unobserved heterogeneity on a set of 128 Norwegian electricity distribution utilities for the 2001–2004 period. We utilise data on 78 geographic and weather variables to identify real economic inefficiency while controlling for observed and unobserved heterogeneity. We use the Factor Analysis technique to reduce the number of environmental factors into few composite variables and to avoid the problem of multicollinearity. In order to identify firm-specific inefficiency, we then estimate a pooled version of the established stochastic frontier model of Aigner et al. (1977) and the recent true random effects model of Greene (2004; 2005a,b) without and with environmental variables. The results indicate that the observed environmental factors have a rather limited influence on the utilities' average efficiency and the efficiency rankings. Moreover, the difference between the average efficiency scores and the efficiency rankings among the pooled and the true random effects models imply that the type of SFA model used is highly influencing the efficiency estimates.