Results 1 - 10 of 79
Results 1 - 10 of 79. Search took: 0.017 seconds
|Sort by: date | relevance|
[en] This study estimates output and substitution elasticities of renewable energy and nonrenewable energy for the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and discusses implications for expanding the former. The results show that nonrenewable energy promises greater benefits for ECOWAS economic transition, with output elasticities averaging between 0.052–0.579 and −0.055 to 0.223 for nonrenewable energy and renewable energy respectively. Overall estimated technological progress is low (−0.5% to 2.6%); the bulk coming from input efficiency. Substitution elasticities (0.02–0.94) suggest potential for switching towards renewable energy. Notwithstanding, scale, economics and sitting problems inherent in renewable power generation challenge the opportunities for energy substitution. A sustainable policy solution, therefore, appears to be one favoring scaled and efficient electricity generation from fossil energy in the short-run with a gradual switch towards renewable power in the long-run. In general, the applied model provides insights that energy efficiency enhances sustainable growth by propelling technological advancement especially when technical change is scale-biased and factor-augmenting. The study also provides insights that impacts of exogenous shocks to inputs are temporary, and hence, do not jeopardize efforts aimed at scaling output through increased and efficient use of labor, capital and energy; especially nonrenewable energy. - Highlights: • Output and substitution elasticities of energy are estimated for the ECOWAS region. • Nonrenewable energy promises greater opportunities for economic growth. • Technical progress is low and driven mainly by the efficiency of inputs. • Energy efficiency drives technological innovation. • Potential of switching towards renewable energy is high but suffers feasibility gaps.
[en] This paper measures the energy efficiency performance with carbon dioxide (CO_2) emissions in 30 provinces in China during the period of 1997–2011 using a meta-frontier framework with the improved directional distance function (DDF). We construct a new environmental production possibility set by combining the super-efficiency and sequential data envelopment analysis (DEA) models to avoid “discriminating power problem” and “technical regress” when evaluating efficiency by DDF. Then, it is used in a meta-frontier framework to reflect the technology heterogeneities across east, central and west China. The results indicate that eastern China achieved the highest progress inefficiency relative to the metafrontier, followed by western and the central China. By focusing on technology gaps, we offer some suggestions for the different groups based on group-frontier and meta-frontier analyses. The inefficiency can be attributed to managerial failure for eastern and western China, and technological differences for central China. The convergence analysis shows that energy and CO_2 emission governance will produce negative effects on economic growth, and it is suitable and acceptable to introduce rigorous environmental measures in eastern China. - Highlights: • We present an improved DEA model to calculate the directional distance function. • The improved directional distance function combines with a meta-frontier analysis. • The reasons of energy inefficiency are varied for different regions. • Convergence analysis means east China should introduce rigorous environmental policy
[en] Highlights: • Climate change impacts on agriculture evaluated under three GCMs. • Farm level adaptation and CO2 effects are included with modeling framework. • All models show welfare gains in China but losses in low and middle income countries. • Global agriculture and welfare seem unthreatened by climate change. • Problematic agricultural policies aimed at mitigation should be relaxed. - Abstract: Cutting-edge contributions intended to guide major decisions on investment and energy policy is relevant for climate change research. This study develops an innovative approach that combines three physical climate simulations (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model, Goddard Institute of Space Studies model, and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office climate model) with a general equilibrium model of global trade in order to study the real economic impacts of climate change. For the most part, climate change projected up to the year 2060 leads to welfare gains in the range of 0.07–1.4%, and welfare losses between 0.04 and 2.2% in some cases. All three climate simulations, point to welfare gains in China and marginal losses in low- and middle-income countries as a result of climate change. These findings underscore the importance of properly accounting for the direct effect of CO2 on crop growth and farm level adaptation, as ignoring these leads to substantial welfare losses in all examined regions. While a more systematic trade-off analysis is required for making strong generalizations, the broadest conclusion from the applied models is that, as long as CO2 fertilization effects and farm level adaptation are fairly included with the simulations, global agriculture does not appear to be particularly threatened by climate change. For this reason, agricultural policies aimed at mitigating CO2 emissions but problematic to food security, especially in developing countries, should be treated with caution.
[en] Promoting technological development to improve energy efficiency has been the primary method of energy conservation in China. However, the existence of energy rebound effect will impose negative effects on the final result of energy saving. In this article, we adopt the Malmquist index approach to estimate the contribution of technological progress to economic growth. We also employ Logarithmic mean weight Divisia index (LMDI) to measure the impact of technological improvement on the energy intensity. Based on the above, we set up a model to estimate the technology-based energy rebound effect in China. The results show that, over 1981–2009, energy rebound effect amounts averagely to 53.2%, implying that China cannot simply rely on technical means to reduce energy consumption and emission. Economic instruments should also be applied as supplements to ensure results of energy conservation and emission reduction. -- Highlights: ► Two improvements in rebound effect calculation model are proposed. ► The size of energy rebound in Chinese macro-economic level is evaluated. ► Energy rebound effect over 1981–2009 in China is averagely up to 53.2%. ► Chinese policy for energy consumption reduction should focus on energy pricing reform.
[en] Highlights: • The paper uses the oil volatility index to measure investor fear gauge (IFG). • The paper develops many HAR models with IFG for forecasting volatility. • HAR models with IFG outperform HAR models without IFG in forecasting volatility. • The IFG has a positive effect on forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures. • The IFG can help improve the performances of most of the existing HAR models. - Abstract: This paper aims to investigate whether investor fear gauge (IFG) contains incremental information content for forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures. For this purpose, we use oil volatility index (OVX) to measure the IFG. Adding the IFG to existing heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) models, we develop many HAR models with IFG. Subsequently, we employ these HAR models to predict the volatility of crude oil futures. The results from the parameter estimation and out-of-sample forecasting show that the in-sample and out-of-sample performances of HAR models with IFG are significantly better than their corresponding HAR models without IFG. The results are robust in different ways. Thus, the HAR models with IFG are more beneficial to the decision making of all participants (including financial traders, manufacturers and policymakers) in the crude oil futures market. More importantly, the results suggest that the investor fear gauge has a significant positive effect on volatility forecasting, and can help improve the performances of almost all the existing HAR models.
[en] China is the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide (CO2). As exports account for about one-third of China's GDP, the CO2 emissions are related to not only China's own consumption but also external demand. Using the input-output analysis (IOA), we analyze the embodied CO2 emissions of China's import and export. Our results show that about 3357 million tons CO2 emissions were embodied in the exports and the emissions avoided by imports (EAI) were 2333 million tons in 2005. The average contribution to embodied emission factors by electricity generation was over 35%. And that by cement production was about 20%. It implies that the production-based emissions of China are more than the consumption-based emissions, which is evidence that carbon leakage occurs under the current climate policies and international trade rules. In addition to the call for a new global framework to allocate emission responsibilities, China should make great efforts to improve its energy efficiency, carry out electricity pricing reforms and increase renewable energy. In particular, to use advanced technology in cement production will be helpful to China's CO2 abatement. (author)
[en] As the most efficient market-based mitigation instrument, carbon tax is highly recommended by economists and international organizations. Countries like Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Netherlands and Norway were the first adopters of carbon tax and as such, research on the impacts and problems of carbon tax implementation in these countries will provide great practical significance as well as caution for countries that are to levy the tax. Different from the existing studies that adopt the model simulation approaches, in this article, we comprehensively estimate the real mitigation effects of the five north European countries by employing the method of difference-in-difference (DID). The results indicate that carbon tax in Finland imposes a significant and negative impact on the growth of its per capita CO2 emissions. Meanwhile, the effects of carbon tax in Denmark, Sweden and Netherlands are negative but not significant. The mitigation effects of carbon tax are weakened due to the tax exemption policies on certain energy intensive industries in these countries. Notwithstanding, in Norway, as the rapid growth of energy products drives a substantial increase of CO2 emissions in oil drilling and natural gas exploitation sectors, carbon tax actually has not realized its mitigation effects. - Highlights: → DID method is employed to test the real mitigation effect of carbon tax. → Carbon tax in Finland imposes a significant and negative impact. → The effects of carbon tax in other four countries are limited. → Tax exemption or tax relief is the main reason of limited effects. → High tax rates and recycling the revenue contribute to emission reduction.
[en] This paper contributes to the existing literature on the methodology of modeling the dynamic of carbon emission performance. Based on the analytical framework of Zhou et al. (Energy Economics, 32, 194–201, 2010), we develop a parametric Malmquist index approach that takes into account statistical noises. Moreover, the fixed-effect panel stochastic frontier model is employed to deal with regional heterogeneity. The proposed approach is applied to analyze the dynamics of carbon emission performance in 30 Chinese provinces during the period of 2000–2010. The main findings are as follows. First, the carbon emission performances of 30 provinces as a whole improved by 4.1% annually during the sample period, which was mainly driven by efficiency change component. Second, the east area shows the best performance with an average Malmquist CO_2 emissions performance index (MCPI) of 1.108, followed by the central area (1.039). Unlike the east and central areas, the west area experienced deterioration in carbon emission performance. More effective environmental policies should be implemented to change the situation. Third, compared with the proposed approach, the nonparametric approach tends to underestimate China's MCPI and gives rise to volatile results. - Highlights: • This paper analyzes the dynamics of carbon emission performance in China. • A parametric Malmquist index approach is presented. • China's carbon emission performance annually improved by 4.1% during the period 2000–2010. • Efficiency change is the major contributor to the improvement of China's MCPI
[en] China is the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide (CO2). As exports account for about one-third of China's GDP, the CO2 emissions are related to not only China's own consumption but also external demand. Using the input-output analysis (IOA), we analyze the embodied CO2 emissions of China's import and export. Our results show that about 3357 million tons CO2 emissions were embodied in the exports and the emissions avoided by imports (EAI) were 2333 million tons in 2005. The average contribution to embodied emission factors by electricity generation was over 35%. And that by cement production was about 20%. It implies that the production-based emissions of China are more than the consumption-based emissions, which is evidence that carbon leakage occurs under the current climate policies and international trade rules. In addition to the call for a new global framework to allocate emission responsibilities, China should make great efforts to improve its energy efficiency, carry out electricity pricing reforms and increase renewable energy. In particular, to use advanced technology in cement production will be helpful to China's CO2 abatement.
[en] Highlights: • New Chinese-specific data are used to compute and test optimal carbon fees for China. • Optimal tax rates range between 0.03% for services and 2.02% for manufacturing. • Carbon taxes lower output of six out of eleven sectors studied including electricity. • In general, carbon taxes lead to welfare gains and reduce pollution by nearly 62.5%. • Carbon taxes are insufficient for mitigation and clean energy expansion is relevant. - Abstract: China is expected to constitute about half of the world's emissions between 2010 and 2040. As concerns about climate change intensify, the Chinese government is poised to commit to a low carbon economy. These conditions make China a suitable case in which to study how emission policies impact on energy supply, welfare, and the environment. To achieve this purpose, we incorporate abatement technologies into the GTAP computable general equilibrium model and show that optimal taxes range between 0.03% for services and 2.02% for manufacturing. In most cases, simulated tax rates are by far higher than pollution taxes stipulated in the new Chinese environmental tax law. Furthermore, despite a decline in output of many sectors including the electricity sector, overall welfare gains exist from introducing carbon taxes. Moreover, these taxes reduce environmental pollution by approximately 62.5%. In general, carbon taxes are insufficient for mitigation in China, and due to a coal-dominant energy structure, implementing these taxes leads to a decline in power generation. Hence, the Chinese aggressive investment strategy for renewable electricity technologies as stipulated in its 13th Five-Year Plan is understandable.