Results 1 - 10 of 21
Results 1 - 10 of 21. Search took: 0.016 seconds
|Sort by: date | relevance|
[en] This paper analyzes potentials of carbon capture and sequestration technologies (CCS) in a set of long-term energy-economic-environmental scenarios based on alternative assumptions for technological progress of CCS. In order to get a reasonable guide to future technological progress in managing CO2 emissions, we review past experience in controlling sulfur dioxide emissions (SO2) from power plants. By doing so, we quantify a 'learning curve' for CCS, which describes the relationship between the improvement of costs due to accumulation of experience in CCS construction. We incorporate the learning curve into the energy modeling framework MESSAGE-MACRO and develop greenhouse gas emissions scenarios of economic, demographic, and energy demand development, where alternative policy cases lead to the stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at 550 parts per million by volume (ppmv) by the end of the 21st century. Due to the assumed technological learning, costs of the emissions reduction for CCS drop rapidly and in parallel with the massive introduction of CCS on the global scale. Compared to scenarios based on static cost assumptions for CCS, the contribution of carbon sequestration is about 50 percent higher in the case of learning resulting in cumulative sequestration of CO2 ranging from 150 to 250 billion (109) tons carbon during the 21st century. The results illustrate that carbon capture and sequestration is one of the obvious priority candidates for long-term technology policies and enhanced R and D efforts to hedge against the risk associated with high environmental impacts of climate change
[en] This paper analyzes potentials of carbon capture and sequestration technologies (CCT) in a set of long-term energy-economic-environmental scenarios based on alternative assumptions for technological progress of CCT. In order to get a reasonable guide to future technological progress in managing CO2 emissions, we review past experience in controlling sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from power plants. By doing so, we quantify a 'learning curve' for CCT, which describes the relationship between the improvement of costs due to accumulation of experience in CCT construction. We incorporate the learning curve into the energy-modeling framework MESSAGE-MACRO and develop greenhouse gas emissions scenarios of economic, demographic, and energy demand development, where alternative policy cases lead to the stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at 550 parts per million by volume (ppmv) by the end of the 21st century. We quantify three types of contributors to the carbon emissions mitigation: (1) demand reductions due to the increased price of energy, (2) fuel switching primarily away from coal, and (3) carbon capture and sequestration from fossil fuels. Due to the assumed technological learning, costs of the emissions reduction for CCT drop rapidly and in parallel with the massive introduction of CCT on the global scale. Compared to scenarios based on static cost assumptions for CCT, the contribution of carbon sequestration is about 50% higher in the case of learning, resulting in cumulative sequestration of CO2 ranging from 150 to 250 billion (109) tons with carbon during the 21st century. Also, carbon values (tax) across scenarios (to meet the 550 ppmv carbon concentration constraint) are between 2% and 10% lower in the case of learning for CCT by 2100. The results illustrate that assumptions on technological change are a critical determinant of future characteristics of the energy system, indicating the importance of long-term technology policies in mitigation of adverse environmental impacts due to climate change
[en] We use the MESSAGE model to examine multiple dimensions of sustainable development for three Asian regions in a set of scenarios developed for the Asian Modelling Exercise. Using climate change mitigation as a starting point for the analysis, we focus on the interaction of climate and energy with technology choice, energy security, energy access, and air pollution, which often have higher policy priority than climate change. Stringent climate policies drive the future energy supply in Asia from being dominated by coal and oil to a more diversified system based mostly on natural gas, coal with CCS, nuclear and renewable energy. The increase in diversity helps to improve the energy security of individual countries and regions. Combining air pollution control policies and universal energy access policies with climate policy can further help to reduce both outdoor and indoor air pollution related health impacts. Investments into the energy system must double by 2030 to achieve stringent climate goals, but are largely offset by lower costs for O and M and air pollution abatement. Strong focus on end-use efficiency also helps lowering overall total costs and allows for limiting or excluding supply side technologies from the mitigation portfolio. Costs of additional energy access policies and measures are a small fraction of total energy system costs. - Highlights: ► Half of added investments in energy offset by lower costs for O and M and air pollution. ► Costs for achieving universal energy access much smaller than energy system costs. ► Combined emissions and access policies further reduce air pollution impacts on health. ► Strong focus on end-use efficiency allows for more flexibility on energy sources. ► Stringent climate policy can improve energy security of Asian regions.
[en] Quantifying water implications of energy transitions is important for assessing long-term freshwater sustainability since large volumes of water are currently used throughout the energy sector. In this paper, we assess direct global energy sector water use and thermal water pollution across a broad range of energy system transformation pathways to assess water impacts of a 2 °C climate policy. A global integrated assessment model is equipped with the capabilities to account for the water impacts of technologies located throughout the energy supply chain. The model framework is applied across a broad range of 2 °C scenarios to highlight long-term water impact uncertainties over the 21st century. We find that water implications vary significantly across scenarios, and that adaptation in power plant cooling technology can considerably reduce global freshwater withdrawals and thermal pollution. Global freshwater consumption increases across all of the investigated 2 °C scenarios as a result of rapidly expanding electricity demand in developing regions and the prevalence of freshwater-cooled thermal power generation. Reducing energy demand emerges as a robust strategy for water conservation, and enables increased technological flexibility on the supply side to fulfill ambitious climate objectives. The results underscore the importance of an integrated approach when developing water, energy, and climate policy, especially in regions where rapid growth in both energy and water demands is anticipated. (letter)
[en] The feasibility of limiting greenhouse gas concentrations and associated global mean temperature increase to 2 deg. C above preindustrial levels has recently attracted considerable scientific and policy attention. Whether or not such low targets can be achieved in the long-term depends on a number of assumptions about, for instance, technological change and the willingness of countries to immediately join a post-Kyoto agreement to limit anthropogenic climate change. As part of the EMF22 international scenarios study, our paper contributes to the ongoing discussion by conducting a scenario analysis in order to examine the influence of these assumptions on the feasibility of a set of radiative forcing targets. We distinguish between 'first-best scenarios' with full participation, and 'second-best scenarios' with delayed participation of Brazil, China, India, and Russia in 2030 and the rest of Non-Annex I countries after 2050. In addition, we explored the robustness of our 'first-best' scenario results by varying the assumptions with regard to availability of key technology clusters. Accounting for the deep uncertainties associated with future global mean temperature change, we conduct a probabilistic assessment and explore the scenario's likelihood for staying below a range of different temperature thresholds. Our results indicate the need for a diverse portfolio of mitigation technologies in order to decarbonize the energy system. Efficiency and enhanced energy conservation play an important role across all scenarios. In addition, carbon capture and storage (CCS) is found to be important for achieving particularly low forcing targets as well as for avoiding pronounced overshoot of the target in the medium-term. Negative emission technologies such as bioenergy with CCS have a strong influence on the timing of mitigation; i.e. without their availability much more early action is needed. According to our analysis, significant delay in the participation of major emitters leads to the unattainability of the most stringent forcing targets. Moreover, delayed participation may lead to excessive additional global mitigation cost that may even exceed the mitigation costs of the most stringent forcing targets in the best case with full participation. We find that for countries that significantly delay their participation, the early gains from postponing mitigation may be offset to a large extent in the long-term, due to the need for more pronounced mitigation later in the century. Linking the radiative forcing targets with temperature change, we find that the chances of staying below certain temperature thresholds may be significantly lower over the course of the century than would be by looking exclusively at 2100. From a policy perspective our results therefore suggest that focusing on early abatement to avoid significant overshoot of concentrations may be as important as the long-term concentration target itself.
[en] This paper examines the global impacts of a policy that internalizes the external costs (related to air pollution damage, excluding climate costs) of electricity generation using a combined energy systems and macroeconomic model. Starting point are estimates of the monetary damage costs for SO2, NO X , and PM per kWh electricity generated, taking into account the fuel type, sulfur content, removal technology, generation efficiency, and population density. Internalizing these externalities implies that clean and advanced technologies increase their share in global electricity production. Particularly, advanced coal power plants, natural gas combined cycles, natural gas fuel cells, wind and biomass technologies gain significant market shares at the expense of traditional coal- and gas-fired plants. Global carbon dioxide emissions are lowered by 3% to 5%. Sulfur dioxide emissions drop significantly below the already low level. The policy increases the costs of electricity production by 0.2 (in 2050) to 1.2 Euro cent/kWh (in 2010). Gross domestic product losses are between 0.6% and 1.1%. They are comparatively high during the initial phase of the policy, pointing to the need for a gradual phasing of the policy
[en] In this paper, we discuss the implications of financing constraints for future energy and climate scenarios. Aspirations to improve energy access and electrification rates in developing countries, while simultaneously reducing greenhouse gas emissions, can be seriously hindered by the availability of low-cost capital for the necessary investments. We first provide a brief description of the theoretical foundations for financing constraints in the energy sector. Then, using a broad range of alternate assumptions we introduce capital supply curves to an energy system model for Sub-Saharan Africa, with a specific focus on the power sector. Our results portray the effect of capital cost on technology selection in electricity generation, specifically how limited capital supply decreases investments to capital-intensive zero-emission technologies. As a direct consequence, the emission price required to meet given emission targets is considerably increased when compared to case that disregards the capital constraints. Finally, we discuss possible policy instruments for resolving the constraints. - Highlights: • Climate and electrification targets increase the capital required for investments. • Required low-cost capital might not be available in developing countries. • Paper presents capital-constrained scenarios on electricity generation in Africa. • The cost of capital affects technology choice and emission levels considerably. • Climate policy effectiveness is dependent on the availability of low-cost capital
[en] Improving access to affordable modern energy is critical to improving living standards in the developing world. Rural households in India, in particular, are almost entirely reliant on traditional biomass for their basic cooking energy needs. This has adverse effects on their health and productivity, and also causes environmental degradation. This study presents a new generic modelling approach, with a focus on cooking fuel choices, and explores response strategies for energy poverty eradication in India. The modelling approach analyzes the determinants of fuel consumption choices for heterogeneous household groups, incorporating the effect of income distributions and traditionally more intangible factors such as preferences and private discount rates. The methodology is used to develop alternate future scenarios that explore how different policy mechanisms such as fuel subsidies and micro-financing can enhance the diffusion of modern, more efficient, energy sources in India.
[en] The radical change in recent global climate governance calls for China and Europe to ramp up their efforts in leading the world to reach the long-term climate goals. By analyzing the results from the state-of-the-art global integrated assessment model, MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM, this paper aims to understand the future levels of financial investment needed for building and maintaining energy-related infrastructure in the two regions for fulfilling stringent targets consistent with ‘well below 2 °C’. The results indicate that a rapid upscaling and structural change of these investments towards decarbonization are necessitated by the climate stringent scenarios. China and Europe need to increase their low carbon investments by 65% and 38% in a scenario reaching the 2° target relative to their respective reference scenarios which assume no such target from 2016–2050. In a more stringent climate policy scenario of the 1.5° target, these investment needs will increase by 149% and 79% for China and Europe respectively. Among all the energy sectors, energy efficiency, renewable electricity generation and electricity transmission and distribution are the three largest investing targets for the two regions. However, those investments will not likely be realized without strong policy incentives. Implications for green finance and multilateral cooperation initiatives are discussed in the context of the scenario results. (letter)
[en] The objective of this paper is identifying mid-century economic targets for nuclear energy. The first step is to describe what the mid-century energy market might look like: the major competitors for nuclear energy, what products are in demand, how much of each, where is growth greatest, and so forth. The mechanism for systematically describing the future market is scenario building. The starting point is the scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. SRES developed four narrative story lines, each representing a different coherent set of demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments. For each story line several different scenarios were developed by six international modelling teams, resulting in 40 scenarios grouped in the 4 story lines. For three of the story lines this paper uses a single marker scenario representative of central tendencies within the scenario family. For the fourth story line the authors chose the scenario that assumes that advances in non-fossil technologies - renewable, nuclear, and high-efficiency conservation technologies - make them most cost-competitive. (BA)