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[en] This paper presents the OPEC Secretariat's latest outlook to 2025 for oil supply and demand. The results have been developed using the OPEC World Energy Model, OWEM. The next two decades are expected to see increases in energy demand met predominantly by fossil fuels, with oil set to continue to maintain its major role. There is also a clear expectation that the oil resource base is sufficiently abundant to satisfy this demand growth. Global oil demand rises in the reference case by 12 million barrels per day to 89 mb/d from 2002 to 2010, an average annual growth rate of 1.5 mb/d, or 1.8 per cent per annum, over the period. In the following decade, demand grows by a further 17 mb/d to 106 mb/d by 2020, and then by another 9 mb/d to 115 mb/d by 2025. Almost three-quarters of the increase in demand over the period 2002-25 comes from developing countries. In the short-to-medium term, overall non-OPEC supply is expected to continue to increase - rising to a plateau of 55-57 mb/d in the post-2010 period. The key sources for the increase in non-OPEC supply will be Latin America, Africa, Russia and the Caspian. In the longer term, OPEC will increasingly be called upon to supply the incremental barrel. Uncertainties over future economic growth, government policies and the rate of development and diffusion of newer technologies raise questions over the future scale of investment that will be required. These uncertainties, coupled with long lead times, inevitably complicate the task of maintaining market stability. Medium-term prospects suggest that there is a need to ensure that spare capacity is not too high and that it is consistent with sustained market stability. There are genuine risks of downward pressure on oil prices, and this could sow the seeds of instability. (Author)
[en] Highlights: • Many countries currently without nuclear power plants are now considering their use. • Many of these “newcomer” countries are considering new designs, including SMRs. • SMRs now being developed offer potential advantages but also face many challenges. • Deploying NPPs in newcomer countries depends on achieving a strong safety culture. • Nuclear safety, a global concern, needs a strengthened international safety regime. - Abstract: This article reviews the status and prospects of nuclear power around the world and provides a perspective on the need to strengthen national and international safety regimes and bolster nuclear safety culture globally – one prerequisite for a sustained role of the technology in the future. It discusses the prospects in countries that have never deployed nuclear power before but have expressed an interest in adding it to their future national energy mixes. Many of these “newcomer” countries are considering small modular reactor (SMR) designs which hold promise for fitting better into their local electricity systems. Thus, the article considers the technical attributes of these designs and analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of SMRs with an emphasis on economics, grid compatibility and most importantly, safety. Attributes of a safety culture are discussed from social and cultural aspects, including topics of good governance and the presence of an independent national regulatory authority. Beyond the need for strong national safety regulations, the article also highlights the need to strengthen the international regulatory regime, if nuclear power is to succeed in achieving the highest levels of safety globally. Finally, the qualities of such a regime are discussed.