Results 1 - 10 of 10
Results 1 - 10 of 10. Search took: 0.016 seconds
|Sort by: date | relevance|
[en] This comprehensive report by the Paul Scherrer Institute PSI in Switzerland documents the development of the Swiss TIMES Electricity Model (STEM-E). This is a flexible model which explicitly depicts plausible pathways for the development of the Swiss electricity sector, while dealing with inter-temporal variations in demand and supply. TIMES is quoted as having the capability to portray the entire energy system from resource supply, through fuel processing, representation of infrastructures, conversion to secondary energy carriers, end-use technologies and energy service demands at end-use sectors. The background of the model's development and a reference energy system are described. Also, electricity end-use sectors and generating systems are examined, including hydropower, nuclear power, thermal generation and renewables. Environmental factors and the calibration of the model are discussed, as is the application of the model. The document is completed with an outlook, references and six appendices
[en] This report issued by the Energy Economics Group and the Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis at the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) analyses current and future trends in the area of energy and mobility on a global, European level as well as with respect to the German-speaking countries Austria, Germany and Switzerland. In a first step, developments with regard to how mobility is achieved and the energy consumption involved are examined and the impact of business-as-usual trends on global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and future fuel consumption is discussed. In a second step, the paper outlines potential alternative futures in terms of energy and mobility. Finally, the paper derives and presents recommendations for policy-makers.
[en] This report presents the findings of a survey of key factors affecting the deployment of electricity generation technologies in selected energy scenarios. The assumptions and results of scenarios, and the different models used in their construction, are compared. Particular attention is given to technology assumptions, such as investment cost or capacity factors, and their impact on technology deployment. We conclude that the deployment of available technologies, i.e. their market shares, can only be explained from a holistic perspective, and that there are strong interactions between driving forces and competing technology options within a certain scenario. Already the design of a scenario analysis has important impacts on the deployment of technologies: the choice of the set of available technologies, the modeling approach and the definition of the storylines determine the outcome. Furthermore, the quantification of these storylines into input parameters and cost assumptions drives technology deployment, even though differences across the scenarios in cost assumptions are not observed to account for many of the observed differences in electricity technology deployment. The deployment can only be understood after a consideration of the interplay of technology options and the scale of technology deployment, which is determined by economic growth, end-use efficiency, and electrification. Some input parameters are of particular importance for certain technologies: CO2 prices, fuel prices and the availability of carbon capture and storage appear to be crucial for the deployment of fossil-fueled power plants; maximum construction rates and safety concerns determine the market share of nuclear power; the availability of suitable sites represents the most important factor for electricity generation from hydro and wind power plants; and technology breakthroughs are needed for solar photovoltaics to become cost-competitive. Finally, this analysis concludes with a review on how energy systems in the selected scenario studies deal with risks related to energy security and greenhouse gas emissions, and recommendations for improving the usefulness of scenario development for decision-makers. (authors)
[en] Leading global energy scenarios highlight the need for nuclear power to play a larger role in climate change mitigation to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. Together with other low carbon technologies, nuclear energy can supply increasing demands for electricity and non-electric energy up to 2050 as part of a sustainable energy transition. Scenario studies from a range of organizations imply that a policy and market environment that unlocks the mitigation potential of nuclear power will enable countries to adopt more ambitious targets in their Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement. (author)
[en] Around 90% of electricity generation worldwide will need to be low carbon by 2050 to limit the increase in global average temperature to 1.5°C, based on the scenarios presented in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C. To achieve this share, deployment rates for nuclear power and other low carbon electricity generation technologies will need to increase significantly compared to peak historical levels. This paper explores the scale of this increase and the implied requirements for materials and industrial and economic capacity. While these factors are critical for achieving the low carbon power mixes described in the IPCC’s 1.5°C scenarios, additional requirements may include specialized supply chains, a skilled workforce and a conducive institutional, regulatory and financial environment. According to the IPCC’s Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15), an extensive and rapid transformation of the energy sector is necessary to avoid major and irreversible changes to the Earth’s climate. The electricity sector, in particular, will need to shift almost entirely to low carbon sources by 2050, as illustrated in the IPCC SR15 scenarios compatible with 1.5°C, which envision an average of around 90 percent of electricity from renewables and nuclear power (compared with around one third today). A key question is whether such a rapid ramp up in low carbon electricity generation is feasible, specifically whether sufficient material, economic, industrial, human, institutional, regulatory and financial capacity is available. (author)
[en] Key messages: 1. Achieving 1.5°C requires an unprecedented transformation of the electricity sector; • On average, 3x nuclear and 30x solar/wind (or, deployment 50% and 650% above historical peaks). 2. Accelerating and scaling up nuclear power for 1.5°C appears to be feasible in terms of economic, resource and industrial capacity
[en] Key messages: 1. To achieve 2°C and 1.5°C, leading global energy scenario studies show: • Increased nuclear power deployment (and electrification); • Complementary role for nuclear and renewables. 2. Compared to current trends, more conducive market and policy conditions are needed to unlock nuclear power’s mitigation potential.
[en] Security of energy supply and climate change are central concerns for policy makers and important dimensions of the long-term quest for a sustainable global energy system. This paper examines the role of several policy instruments in managing energy security and climate risks and stimulating technological change towards a more secure and climate-benign global energy system in the long-term future. The analysis has been conducted with ERIS, a multi-regional energy-systems ''bottom-up'' optimization model with technology learning. Our analysis provides some policy insights and identifies synergies and trade-offs relating to the potential for security of supply policies to promote the uptake of new technologies, reduce the cost of pursuing climate change mitigation policies, and facilitate a possible transition to a hydrogen economy. (author)