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[en] Countries differ considerably in terms of the price drivers pay for gasoline. This paper uses data for 132 countries for the period 1995–2008 to investigate the implications of these differences for the consumption of gasoline for road transport. To address the potential for simultaneity bias, we use both a country's oil reserves and the international crude oil price as instruments for a country's average gasoline pump price. We obtain estimates of the long-run price elasticity of gasoline demand of between − 0.2 and − 0.5. Using newly available data for a sub-sample of 43 countries, we also find that higher gasoline prices induce consumers to substitute to vehicles that are more fuel-efficient, with an estimated elasticity of + 0.2. Despite the small size of our elasticity estimates, there is considerable scope for low-price countries to achieve gasoline savings and vehicle fuel economy improvements via reducing gasoline subsidies and/or increasing gasoline taxes. - Highlights: ► We estimate the determinants of gasoline demand and new-vehicle fuel economy. ► Estimates are for a large sample of countries for the period 1995–2008. ► We instrument for gasoline prices using oil reserves and the world crude oil price. ► Gasoline demand and fuel economy are inelastic with respect to the gasoline price. ► Large energy efficiency gains are possible via higher gasoline prices
[en] The article analyses economic barriers leading to the energy efficiency gap in the market for energy-using products by observing several million transactions in the UK over two years. The empirical exercise estimates AIDS models for refrigerators, washing machines, TVs, and light bulbs. Results indicate that market barriers are crucial in the demand for energy efficient options, and consumer response to changes in appliance prices, total expenditures, and energy prices depends on the possibility of behavioural adjustments in consumption. In contrast with the induced innovation hypothesis, current electricity prices can fail to induce innovation because of their short-term impact on disposable income, while consumers invest in energy efficiency when expecting electricity prices to rise in the future. - Highlights: • The article analyses economic barriers to energy efficiency in the UK. • Data refers to 2-year sales of refrigerators, washing machines, TV, and light bulbs. • Demand parameters by efficiency rating are estimated from four AIDS models. • Future (not present) electricity prices induce investments in energy efficiency. • Behavioural efficiency adjustments explain differences in market response
[en] Crude oil is a dynamically traded commodity that affects many economies. We propose a collection of marked self-exciting point processes with dependent arrival rates for extreme events in oil markets and related risk measures. The models treat the time among extreme events in oil markets as a stochastic process. The main advantage of this approach is its capability to capture the short, medium and long-term behavior of extremes without involving an arbitrary stochastic volatility model or a prefiltration of the data, as is common in extreme value theory applications. We make use of the proposed model in order to obtain an improved estimate for the Value at Risk in oil markets. Empirical findings suggest that the reliability and stability of Value at Risk estimates improve as a result of finer modeling approach. This is supported by an empirical application in the representative West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil markets. - Highlights: • We propose marked self-exciting point processes for extreme events in oil markets. • This approach captures the short and long-term behavior of extremes. • We improve the estimates for the VaR in the WTI and Brent crude oil markets
[en] Using a cross-country firm-level dataset this study empirically analyses how the implemented renewable electricity promotion systems – Tradable Green Certificates vs. Feed-in-Tariffs – affected the profitability of the electricity production sector in Europe during the 2002–2010 period. In particular, it tests the hypothesis that due to market imperfections, namely because of higher investment risk, higher capital constraints and higher transaction costs, TGC schemes will be associated with excess profits for renewable electricity generating firms. The results somewhat support this hypothesis, showing that electricity generating firms, operating in EU countries that implemented TGC, were more profitable compared to FIT firms. - Highlights: • Feed-in-Tariffs and Green Certificates are common policies to promote green energy. • The main hypothesis is that Green Certificates are associated with excess profits. • The effects of renewable energy policies on firm profitability are analysed. • The results support the main hypothesis of this study
[en] Starting in 2004, the federal government in the United States offered several nationwide incentives to consumers to increase the adoption of hybrid electric vehicles. This study assesses the effectiveness of the Energy Policy Act of 2005 in this regard using econometric methods and data between 2000 and 2010. Our model accounts for network externalities by using lagged sales as an independent variable. This approach helps to capture the exponential initial growth associated with the diffusion of new technologies and avoids overestimating the effect of the policy incentives. Our results show that the Energy Policy Act of 2005 increased the sales of hybrids from 3% to 20% depending on the vehicle model considered. In addition, we find that this incentive is only effective when the amount provided is sufficiently large. - Highlights: • We collected data on monthly car sales by vehicle model for 11 years. • Econometric methods are used to model vehicle sales. • Inclusion of a lagged dependent variable is employed to control for natural growth. • Direct monetary incentives are found to be statistically insignificant. • Macro-effects of unemployment and gas prices are important for vehicle sales
[en] This paper investigates trends in energy intensity over the last 40 years. Based on a sample of 75 countries, it applies the Fisher Ideal Index to decompose the energy intensity into the relative contributions of energy efficiency and economic structure. Then, the determinants of these energy indexes are examined through panel data regression techniques. Special attention is lent to Latin American countries (LAC) by comparing its performance to that of a similar set of countries chosen through the synthetic control method. When analyzed by income level, energy intensity has decreased in a range between 40 and 54% in low and medium income countries respectively. Efficiency improvements drive these changes, while the structural effect does not represent a clear source of change. The regression analysis shows that per capita income, petroleum prices, fuel-energy mix, and GDP growth are main determinants of energy intensity and efficiency, while there are no clear correlations with the activity component. In the case of LAC the energy intensity decreased around 20% which could be interpreted as an under-performance. However, the counterfactual exercise suggests that LAC has closed the gap with respect to its synthetic control
[en] The growing importance of the electricity sector in many economies, and of energy and environmental policies, requires a detailed consideration of these sectors and policies in computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, including both technological and temporal aspects. This paper presents the first attempt to our knowledge at building temporal disaggregation into a CGE model, while keeping technological detail. This contribution is coupled with some methodological improvements over existing technology-rich CGE models. The model is able to account for the indirect effects characteristic of CGE models while also mimicking the detailed behavior of the electricity operation and investment present before only in bottom-up detailed models. The present paper is the first of two parts and focuses on the bottom-up top-down calibration methodology needed to build such a model. Part II will present the CGE model applied to the evaluation of an energy policy with temporal consequences. - Highlights: • We introduce electricity temporal and technological detail into a SAM. • The calibration procedure uses a bottom-up electricity model to enrich the results. • As result, we obtain micro-founded macroeconomic electricity CGE data. • We propose a minimax calibration procedure that outperforms the quadratic alternative. • The resulting SAM sets the foundation for creating a truly hybrid CGE modeling
[en] Our paper explores the implication of climate mitigation policy and electricity generation technology performance for capital investment demands by the electric power sector on near term to century time scales. We find that stabilizing GHG emissions will require additional investment in the electricity generation sector over and above investments that would be needed in the absence of climate policy, in the range of 15 to 29 trillion US$ (48–94%) depending on the stringency of climate policy during the period 2015 to 2095 under default technology assumptions. This increase reflects the higher capital intensity of power systems that control emissions as well as increased electrification of the global economy. Limits on the penetration of nuclear and carbon capture and storage technology could increase costs substantially. Energy efficiency improvements can reduce the investment requirement by 18 to 24 trillion US$ (compared to default technology climate policy assumptions), depending on climate policy scenario. We also highlight the implications of different technology evolution scenarios for different regions. Under default technology set, the heaviest investments across scenarios in power generation were observed in China, India, SE Asia and Africa regions with the latter three regions dominating in the second half of the 21st century. - Highlights: • We present electricity generation investment requirement under different scenarios. • A climate policy will lead to substantial increase in investment requirement. • Stringency of climate policy has significant implications for investments. • Technology evolution and performance alter investment requirements significantly. • China, India, Southeast Asia and Africa dominate as investment destinations
[en] We evaluate how alternative future oil prices will influence the penetration of biofuels, energy production, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, land use and other outcomes. Our analysis employs a global economy wide model and simulates alternative oil prices out to 2050 with and without a price on GHG emissions. In one case considered, based on estimates of available resources, technological progress and energy demand, the reference oil price rises to $124 by 2050. Other cases separately consider constant reference oil prices of $50, $75 and $100, which are targeted by adjusting the quantity of oil resources. In our simulations, higher oil prices lead to more biofuel production, more land being used for bioenergy crops, and fewer GHG emissions. Reducing oil resources to simulate higher oil prices has a strong income effect, so decreased food demand under higher oil prices results in an increase in land allocated to natural forests. We also find that introducing a carbon price reduces the differences in oil use and GHG emissions across oil price cases. - Highlights: • We evaluate the energy, emissions and land use impacts of alternative oil prices. • Future oil prices are targeted by adjusting the quantity of oil resources. • Oil price projections are considered with and without a carbon price. • Higher oil prices lead to more biofuel production and fewer GHG emissions. • Natural forestland increases under higher oil prices due to decreased food demand.
[en] Rebound effect refers to the phenomenon that the actual reduction in energy use and emissions is less than the expected reduction caused by an energy efficiency improvement due to induced behavior adjustment of relevant economic agents. This article studies the global rebound effects on energy use and related emissions caused by an energy efficiency improvement. We adopt a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to design a scenario of energy efficiency improvement, which is compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario to identify the global rebound effect. Our results show very large rebound effect on energy use (70%) and related emissions (90%) in 2040 at the global level with regional and sectoral differences. Important determinants, among others, are induced labor movement among economic activities and labor supply, and substitution elasticity between energy and other goods. Labor mobility has a marked impact on both rebound effects and on fuel mix. The global rebound effect is still considerable even with a low substitution elasticity between energy and other goods. The effect of capital accumulation over time contributes marginally to the global rebound effect as it is utilized to promote economic growth by using energy input more efficiently. - Highlights: • Global rebound effect is examined by a global CGE model. • We found very large global rebound effect on energy use (70%) and related emissions (90%). • Labor movement across activities is one of the key determinants. • Low substitution elasticity between energy and other goods ≠ low rebound effect. • Rebound effect accompanies economic growth.