[en] This paper models and estimates energy demand by the household sector using the top-down or the two-level approach. The discussion has been developed to include a breakdown of household consumption by fuel type. It also simulates the developed model under three scenarios and presents an analysis of the results. The empirical results indicate that short- and long-run energy consumption and the level of economic activity are interrelated. The model simulation shows that energy consumption varies directly with economic growth. It also illustrates that an increase of 100 per cent in all nominal energy prices will lead to a reduction in household energy demand of 28 per cent by the year 2010. The simulation results clearly demonstrate that the potential for energy conservation exists in Kuwait in the household sector and particularly in the consumption of electricity. Moreover, fuel-switching will be in favour of oil products only when energy prices increase substantially, as in the case of the extreme scenario

[en] The economic interest of oil companies and the oil-producing Third World countries, together with the technological handicaps and political considerations of the latter, provide the scenarios within which the two groups interact. In the early history of oil exploitation, the relationship was such that the oil companies had the final say in all matters. Furthermore, apart from the token royalty, no taxes were usually imposed on the exploration companies. The relationship between the oil companies and the host local communities, even in the developed countries, seems to be a replica of that between the companies and the host countries. There is the feeling in many of the local communities that they have gained little or nothing from petroleum exploitation. This is the case not only in the setting of a less developed country, such as Nigeria, but also in that of a developed country, such as the United States. In these communities, the adverse environment effect of oil exploitation is usually perceived as being overwhelming. (author)

[en] In recent years, much attention has been focused upon the Asian Pacific countries as constituting an economic 'miracle' over the last two decades. Economic growth in the Pacific Rim has been higher than in any other area of the world. The rapid industrialization process and its impact on the economies of these countries, at both macro and micro levels, are discussed widely in the economic literature. Of particular interest are the fundamental structural changes these countries have experienced in their transition to industrialized economies. This instalment of the annual 'Energy indicators' series concentrates on Pacific Rim countries, namely Hong Kong, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. Similar to other experiences, rapid economic growth in these countries has been accompanied by 'spectacular' growth in demand for energy. Therefore, this year's paper not only underlines certain trends in these six energy markets but also attempts to test the phenomenon 'threshold country', i.e., shifting from the developing to the industrialized world by using common indicators and methodologies. The analysis starts with a comparison of energy intensities. Section 2 provides an overview of the socio-economic and energy indicators of the Pacific Rim countries. Section 3 introduces a standard econometric model on the most dynamic consuming sector, namely transport. Section 4 presents the projections of consumption in this sector and discusses policy issues. Some concluding remarks in Section 6 complete the paper. (author)

[en] Many industry analysts continue to raise the possibility that potential financial constraints might frustrate the smooth development of the world oil industry. That is, will the petroleum industry be able to source on reasonable terms the volume of finance needed to cover potential investment requirements? There is a further implicit issue here of whether financial markets will differentiate between projects in industrialized and Third World countries; among the latter, the question naturally arises whether interest will be confined mainly or exclusively to high-income producers. One of the main purposes of this paper is to show that enormous progress has been made in innovating new financial structures that should enable all market segments to access the finance needed for future energy development. Furthermore, recent financial developments now permit the petroleum industry to manage price risk far more effectively than was ever possible before. (author)

[en] Just because gas is labelled the fuel of the future does not ensure that it will become exactly that; but faith is important. If the world's energy establishments really want to expand their use of natural gas, all the objective conditions exist to make this expansion possible: large and increasing gas supplies; impressive changes in gas-burning technologies; a widespread acceptance of gas by both the general public and environmentalists; and so on. The considerable increase in the supply of gas is probably regarded as bad news by many exporters of gas, but I am not so sure that this will prove to be the case. Instead, a situation may be foreseen where the widely advertized rising supply will tend to encourage demand, since many actual and potential gas users will be inclined to interpret rapidly increasing gas reserves as the forerunner of an extended buyers' market. Two other factors working in favour of natural gas are the growing belief that the remaining reserves of oil are considerably more limited than previously believed and the increase in the value of natural gas due to technological advances being made in gas-burning equipment. The pattern of economic growth and development in Sweden which does not have natural gas and the key role of the electricity sector, is a pointer to countries which do possess gas that they should pay particular attention to its value in electricity generation. (author)

[en] This paper first analyses price and income elasticity of oil demand in the United States, Canada and Mexico for the period 1980-99. Economic activity is the main driving force that influences oil consumption in each country. Changes in oil consumption generally lagged by a few years before the full impact of changes in oil prices was realized. Consumers in the short run are constrained by technological and other barriers and, therefore, less sensitive to changes in oil prices; however, they are more responsive in the long run - though response is still inelastic. The use of advanced technology facilitated these countries to use less oil over time. The paper then looks at demand over the next 20 years. The best-fitting model predicts that, by the end of 2020 (reference case), the USA, Canada and Mexico will respectively consume 24,900, 2,596 and 2,321 thousand barrels daily, compared with 19,519, 1,943 and 1,970 thousand b/d in 1999. The model forecasts economic slowdown during 2000/2002. The USA and Canada are expected to recover quickly, while Mexico will take longer. (author)

[en] The present state of subsidies on major oil products (gasoline, kerosene, diesel and fuel oil) in OPEC Member Countries is analysed, in order to quantify their economic cost, keeping in mind the importance of reforming or gradually removing subsidies as one of the crucial economic challenges facing many Member Countries. The paper begins with a general definition and description of subsidies, then discusses briefly the key issues in reforming/removing them, with the potential benefits. Following a section on subsidy level estimations in recent years, the subsidy implications in terms of the accruing budget burden and foregone revenues from additional export potential are presented. This is together with some arguments supporting the process of adjustment towards internationally competitive prices for oil products as an inescapable development for Member Countries; this should progress in gradual, but firm steps. (author)

[en] This paper presents evidence of the effects of OPEC policy decisions on the US and UK stock markets, as well as on oil prices, during periods of conflict and non-conflict from 1986 to 2004. The outcomes of this study are potentially valuable in assessing future strategies for OPEC policy decisions on oil production targets for its Members. This paper also adds to the strong body of evidence supporting the hypothesis that market returns are influenced by factors that affect business conditions, such as oil price shocks. The key findings are that there are asymmetric reactions to OPEC policy decisions during conflict periods for the US and UK stock markets. During conflict periods, oil markets require time to incorporate OPEC decisions. Conversely, in non-conflict periods the evidence suggests that the oil markets incorporate OPEC decisions efficiently. (Author)

[en] The aim of this paper is to shed some light on the past climate of the Earth, as well as on present and expected future changes. This is essential, since the present climate is a natural extension of that of the past and the causes of climate variation may be very much interrelated. Current measures to contain climate by reducing carbon dioxide emissions are discussed. Some positive effects of increased carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are noted, however. Recent analysis suggests that carbon accumulation in terrestrial ecosystems has been increasing over the past 30 years due to carbon dioxide stimulations of plant growth. Combining this with forest management which reverses the process of deforestation could potentially absorb more than the carbon releases to the atmosphere by fossil fuel burning. Nevertheless, policy measures are being taken by industrialized countries to reduce atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide by placing curbs on the use of fossil fuels. The effect of the carbon tax in particular on OPEC oil production is assessed. (6 figures, 7 tables). (UK)

[en] The purpose of this paper is to incorporate economic, geological and engineering information in the analysis of forecasting future discoveries of oil fields and to apply the method for the specific case of the Continental Shelf of the United Kingdom's sector of the North Sea (we restrict our analysis to discoveries in a particular area). The model developed aims to take into account the discovery process of an oil field, and incorporates the assessment of the possible risk for the explorer and the influence of different economic variables on the decision to explore (thus we are not considering the production and exploitation process). (1 figure, 3 tables). (Author)