[en] This paper presents evidence that the main determinant of the rate of development of Libya's crude oil upstream activities, from 1961 to 1999, was the terms of the petroleum contractual agreements, which existed between the state and the international oil industry during that period, and that US sanctions against the Socialist People's Libyan Arab Jamahiriya failed to affect this rate of development. In keeping with other Members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Libya has, over three decades, been a key player in helping to regulate global production levels of oil and gas. However, the economic and political strengths and weaknesses of individual Members of OPEC vary widely and it is inevitable that the stresses arising from adherence to OPEC policies will vary proportionately to these strengths and weaknesses. It is instructive, therefore, to analyse how successfully Libya has exploited its own petroleum resources. The results are thought-provoking and send signals to the superpowers of the futility of economic sanctions against countries whose political policies they find distasteful. Further, the analysis highlights the need for OPEC Members to be fully informed of the significance of the terms of the petroleum agreements they employ in their countries. (author)

[en] The purpose of this study is, first to find out, based on historical data, whether quarterly averages of non-OPEC supply follow a seasonal pattern. If that is mathematically established, then, secondly, it is attempted to estimate the best seasonal factors to decompose the estimated yearly average into seasonal averages. This study applies the Fourier analysis to quarterly supply series to test for seasonality, and provides estimates of seasonal factors for the year 2001 by applying the so-called X-11 decomposition method to the annual estimate. A set of historical data, consisting of quarterly supply averages of individual countries, regional subtotals and aggregate non-OPEC for the period 1971-2000, forms the basis of the analysis. Through the application of the Fourier analysis and X-11 decomposition method, it is demonstrated that quarterly non-OPEC supply, be it by an individual major producer or regional sub-totals, clearly follows a seasonal pattern. This is a very useful conclusion for the market analyst involved with forecasting the quarterly supply. (author)

[en] This article assesses the impact of recent tax exemption legislation as a vehicle for the attraction of investment in the quest for the development of international energy in Nigeria, particularly oil and gas. It seeks to argue that generous tax incentives are the most successful method of inducement of foreign investors, judging from the rising profile in the expansion of investment in the gas sector and the attendant increase in world trade. It attempts to assert that tax incentives alone, without the combination of other favourable factors, like political stability, observance of the rule of law and deregulation or trade liberalisation, cannot produce the desired result of local industrialisation and integration into the world economy. (author)

[en] The aim of this paper is to shed some light on the past climate of the Earth, as well as on present and expected future changes. This is essential, since the present climate is a natural extension of that of the past and the causes of climate variation may be very much interrelated. Current measures to contain climate by reducing carbon dioxide emissions are discussed. Some positive effects of increased carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are noted, however. Recent analysis suggests that carbon accumulation in terrestrial ecosystems has been increasing over the past 30 years due to carbon dioxide stimulations of plant growth. Combining this with forest management which reverses the process of deforestation could potentially absorb more than the carbon releases to the atmosphere by fossil fuel burning. Nevertheless, policy measures are being taken by industrialized countries to reduce atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide by placing curbs on the use of fossil fuels. The effect of the carbon tax in particular on OPEC oil production is assessed. (6 figures, 7 tables). (UK)

[en] The purpose of this paper is to incorporate economic, geological and engineering information in the analysis of forecasting future discoveries of oil fields and to apply the method for the specific case of the Continental Shelf of the United Kingdom's sector of the North Sea (we restrict our analysis to discoveries in a particular area). The model developed aims to take into account the discovery process of an oil field, and incorporates the assessment of the possible risk for the explorer and the influence of different economic variables on the decision to explore (thus we are not considering the production and exploitation process). (1 figure, 3 tables). (Author)

[en] Humans have managed to exploit the Earth's natural capital to create a vast human-made physical capital stock, whereby we provide food, fuel, clothing and shelter for the great majority of the planet's inhabitants. In doing so, we have damaged the environment and dissipated much that we inherited. Since the stock of natural capital is finite, for how long can this depletion and erosion continue? With what do we replace it in order to maintain our economic systems? This paper explores in a quantitative manner the potential to substitute solar energy for natural capital. In order to proceed, we need to distinguish between different types of natural capital, understand the nature of human-made capital and see what it is that determines the viability of solar energy systems. A macroeconomic model, GlobEcco, has been used to assess the potential for economic development at the global level in the context of the consequent rate of depletion of the Earth's depletable natural capital and/or its substitution by solar energy. Nine policies for the introduction of solar electricity, as derived from hydro-power, wind energy and photovoltaics, have been tested. (7 figures, 3 tables). (Author)

[en] The literature on OPEC energy policy has focused primarily on its production and export potential. The rapidly increasing domestic demand for petroleum products in OPEC countries has often been ignored. This study estimates domestic demand for petroleum products by the major OPEC economies and forecasts consumption trends under alternative assumptions regarding economic growth and price deregulation. It concludes that product demand is generally price and income inelastic and thus domestic consumption in OPEC will continue to grow rapidly, even if domestic prices are raised closer to world levels in the near future

[en] This paper uses a multiple regression model derived from an adaptation of Nerlove's partial adjustment model to estimate both the short-run and long-run elasticities of demand for crude oil in 23 countries. The estimates so obtained confirm that the demand for crude oil internationally is highly insensitive to changes in price. (author)

[en] This paper analyses natural gas demand in the United States of America, Canada and Mexico for the period 1980-2001. Visual inspections of the historical trends for natural gas demand, GDP and natural gas prices provide an initial assessment of the relationship between these variables. The paper then estimates various regressions, using the Almon polynomial distributed lag model. Several regressions, utilizing different combinations of explanatory variables, were run with or without an autoregressive scheme of various orders. The best-fitting model in each country was selected, and this was later used to generate natural gas demand forecasts for the respective countries to 2020. The results show that the income elasticity for Canada is more than unity (1.4), compared with less then unity for the USA (0.8) and Mexico (0.65). Changes in natural gas consumption generally lag by a few years, before the full impact of the changes in gas prices is realised. The length of lags varies between countries, but generally the effect of a price change on natural gas consumption dissipates after three-to-four years. Population is one of the important explanatory variables for Mexico, while it is not significant for the USA and Canada. The model predicts that natural gas demand in the USA (base case) will increase at an annualised growth rate of 1.9 per cent and, by 2020, should reach 919 billion cubic metres. This is not very different to the forecast of the US Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) (900 bcm). Similarly, the base case forecast for Canada to 2020 is 128 bcm, compared with that of the EIA at 125 bcm. The forecast for Mexico (92 bcm) is significantly different to that of the EIA (120), perhaps due to different economic growth assumptions. The paper concludes that there is an urgent need to enhance exploration efforts and investment in liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals, to be able to receive LNG from multiple sources, particularly in the USA and Mexico. (Author)

[en] Notwithstanding forecasting difficulties, the oil supply and demand balance has proved to be a good indicator of the state of the market and stock levels, which, in turn, influence price behaviour. In periods where OECD commercial stock levels lie within a certain range, currently around 2,450-2,650 million barrels, the range of prices is larger than when stock levels are very high or very low. In both the latter extreme situations, prices are prone to rapid movements, undermining market stability. Other factors, of course, also influence price fluctuations. The general opinion among regularly published oil market reports points to the inevitability of a higher-than-normal build in stocks in the second quarter of 2004. If the resulting surplus is not handled in a timely and effective manner, there is likely to be excessive downward pressure on prices, which, if left unattended, would lead to a protracted spell of volatility. (Author)