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AbstractAbstract
[en] In this paper stochastic simulation model of gas supply and consumption during heating season is described. The simulation of gas supply is based on constant import and domestic production and varying production of underground storage which depends on current needs and quantity of gas in the storage. The basis for consumption simulation is the stochastic relationship between gas consumption and mean daily air temperature and type of the day, expressed in the form of linear regression model. Mean daily air temperatures, as one of basic causes of daily gas consumption variations, are simulated, on the basis of statistical characteristics and own air temperature measurements, as a first order autoregression model. By using the developed simulation model the statistical characteristics (expectation, standard deviation) of daily gas consumption and the difference between maximum possible daily supply and consumption (delivery safety margin) are derived for all days in the season. The definition of gas delivery safety is given and critical delivery probabilities for all days in the season and different safety margins are determined. Also, statistical characteristics of critical delivery duration depending on gas reserves status for underground storage is predicted. Predicted gas storage delivery rate is compared against predicted requirements, and on the basis of this comparison possible bottlenecks in gas delivery to consumers and course of future actions are indicated. (author)
Original Title
Simulacija opskrbe potrosaca plinom tijekom ogrjevne sezone
Primary Subject
Source
Croatian Energy Association, Zagreb (Croatia); 316 p; ISBN 953-96345-3-9;
; 1996; p. 205-219; 5. forum: Energy day in Croatia: Expectation in energy consumption until 2020; Peti forum: Dan energije u Hrvatskoj: Ocekivanja u potrosnji energije do 2020. godine; Zagreb (Croatia); 13 Dec 1996; 3 tabs., 10 figs., 6 refs.

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[en] In this paper new demand-side technologies and their influence on power system are described. Better connection between utility and its customers is the most important thing for build up good data-base and that data-base is base for efficient usage of DSM program. (author)
Original Title
Efikasnije upravljanje potrosnjom boljom povezanoscu s potrsacima i kvalitetnijom bazom podataka
Primary Subject
Source
Croatian Energy Association, Zagreb (Croatia); 316 p; ISBN 953-96345-3-9;
; 1996; p. 287-297; 5. forum: Energy day in Croatia: Expectation in energy consumption until 2020; Peti forum: Dan energije u Hrvatskoj: Ocekivanja u potrosnji energije do 2020. godine; Zagreb (Croatia); 13 Dec 1996; 1 fig., 10 refs.

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[en] Proposed NFE Program (rational energy use and renewable energy) takes into account European Union experience and the facts of scarce fossil fuel reserves and relatively low energy efficiency in Croatia. Implementation of the NFE Program is expected to reduce fossil fuels import growth and environmental pollution, to improve import-export trade balance and to contribute to the new local jobs. (author)
Original Title
Program nefosilnih energenata u Hrvatskoj (Program NFE)
Primary Subject
Source
Croatian Energy Association, Zagreb (Croatia); 316 p; ISBN 953-96345-3-9;
; 1996; p. 221-228; 5. forum: Energy day in Croatia: Expectation in energy consumption until 2020; Peti forum: Dan energije u Hrvatskoj: Ocekivanja u potrosnji energije do 2020. godine; Zagreb (Croatia); 13 Dec 1996; 4 figs., 11 refs.

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[en] The usage of methyl-ester (biofuel) on the basis of oilseed rape in some countries of West Europe is investigated as energy source, and a few years ago was in experimental application. Oilseed rape is one of the major oilseed crops intended for the production of methyl-ester, especially for internal combustion engines. But, except for primary methyl-ester, secondary produces are: 1. Oil cakes or crushed oil seeds - usage value is enormous, especially if it is used as a feed for all livestock categories. 2. Oilseed rape hay -its use as a means of energy source is gaining in importance. 3. Remains of the plant are used for activating the soil fauna and improving the whole soil structure. New '00' cultivars have high - quality oil and improved meal quality; also, then have reduced amount of glucosinolates - below 5 mmol/g, and ERUCA acid, which enabled their use as feed in serve quantity. (author)
Original Title
Uljana repica u energetsko proizvodnom krugu
Primary Subject
Source
Croatian Energy Association, Zagreb (Croatia); 316 p; ISBN 953-96345-3-9;
; 1996; p. 259-269; 5. forum: Energy day in Croatia: Expectation in energy consumption until 2020; Peti forum: Dan energije u Hrvatskoj: Ocekivanja u potrosnji energije do 2020. godine; Zagreb (Croatia); 13 Dec 1996; 5 tabs., 2 figs., 7 refs.

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[en] Urged by earlier continuous failures in forecasting the consumption of energy in the world, essentially characterized by megalomania, the author presents his views on causes of such occurrences. Fundamental cause is considered - logic of a circle - insensitive to social and economic effects on the humanity in general and particularly to the energy consumption. Besides, a lethal influence of voluntarism has been specially studied as well. (author)
Original Title
Zamke prognoziranja potrosnje energije
Primary Subject
Source
Croatian Energy Association, Zagreb (Croatia); 316 p; ISBN 953-96345-3-9;
; 1996; p. 57-65; 5. forum: Energy day in Croatia: Expectation in energy consumption until 2020; Peti forum: Dan energije u Hrvatskoj: Ocekivanja u potrosnji energije do 2020. godine; Zagreb (Croatia); 13 Dec 1996; 13 refs.

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[en] The most important agricultural crop in the world, besides wheat and rice is corn. In the last 10 years, Republic of Croatia has produced about 2000000 tons of corn. Most of that is used for food and feed and for seed production and it is 1000000 tons in quantity. This quantity demands between 35000 to 40000 tons of oil. For the reason, this paper describes the possibilities of the substitution of oil with corn biomass after harvesting. (author)
Original Title
Upotreba biomase kukuruza (ZEA MAYS) u procesu susenja
Primary Subject
Source
Croatian Energy Association, Zagreb (Croatia); 316 p; ISBN 953-96345-3-9;
; 1996; p. 251-257; 5. forum: Energy day in Croatia: Expectation in energy consumption until 2020; Peti forum: Dan energije u Hrvatskoj: Ocekivanja u potrosnji energije do 2020. godine; Zagreb (Croatia); 13 Dec 1996; 3 tabs., 13 refs.

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[en] Europe and Croatia meet 70% of their total natural gas demand from indigenous production and import other 30% (20% from the Russian Federation and 10% from Algeria). Croatia imports gas only from Russia. Forecasts and analysis of energy sector development point out that natural gas consumption will be doubled till 2010 when it will reach approximately 555-651 bcm. Natural gas consumption is expected to rise significantly in Croatia. Estimations of required import made by INA and PROHES - preliminary results, are similar. It has been expected that future import in 2010 will be between 2 and 3 bcm depending on considered scenario. Due to expectations of rising gas demand, Europe is turning on to new projects aiming to better connections by pipelines and LNG chains. New projects are considering constructions of new Russian transmission lines, additional lines from North Sea, increasing capacity of lines from Algeria, UK interconnection with Continent, and new pipelines and LNG routes from Middle East and Central Asia. Involvement in some the above mentioned projects is of importance for Croatia because it enables additional natural gas quantities and diversification of sources. (author)
Original Title
Osvrt na mogucnosti opskrbe Republike Hrvatske prirodnim plinom
Primary Subject
Source
Croatian Energy Association, Zagreb (Croatia); 316 p; ISBN 953-96345-3-9;
; 1996; p. 161-185; 5. forum: Energy day in Croatia: Expectation in energy consumption until 2020; Peti forum: Dan energije u Hrvatskoj: Ocekivanja u potrosnji energije do 2020. godine; Zagreb (Croatia); 13 Dec 1996; 9 tabs., 3 figs.

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[en] In this work are presented first, working results of forecasting energy needs by the year 2025 in Croatia, what is being carried out as a part of the Project PROHES. Future needs for useful heat, motor fuels and electricity for nonthermal purposes, have been analysed. Research still continues, more scenarios are being worked out, and its results, that will also include primary energy needs, are expected in the middle of the year 1997. (author)
Original Title
Potrebe energije do 2025. godine u Hrvatskoj
Primary Subject
Source
Croatian Energy Association, Zagreb (Croatia); 316 p; ISBN 953-96345-3-9;
; 1996; p. 23-40; 5. forum: Energy day in Croatia: Expectation in energy consumption until 2020; Peti forum: Dan energije u Hrvatskoj: Ocekivanja u potrosnji energije do 2020. godine; Zagreb (Croatia); 13 Dec 1996; 29 figs.

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[en] In this paper are given characteristics of total energy supply and tendencies according to sources and sectors of energy consumption in Slavonija and Baranja, between year 1985 and 1990. Separately are given war influences to energy supply in the year 1991. There are also given, based on natural-economical characteristics of Croatia, on example and experience of Slavonija and Baranja, some thesis about possibly regional approach to energy supply in Croatia. (author)
Original Title
Regionalni aspekt opskrbe energijom - primjer Slavonije i Baranje
Primary Subject
Source
Croatian Energy Association, Zagreb (Croatia); 316 p; ISBN 953-96345-3-9;
; 1996; p. 133-141; 5. forum: Energy day in Croatia: Expectation in energy consumption until 2020; Peti forum: Dan energije u Hrvatskoj: Ocekivanja u potrosnji energije do 2020. godine; Zagreb (Croatia); 13 Dec 1996; 2 tabs., 7 refs.

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[en] Introduction of the idea of a network for the increase of the industrial energy efficiency, international activities in that area, some experiences, targets and plan of the building of such network in Croatia. (author)
Original Title
Mreza industrijske energetske efikasnosti (MIEE)
Primary Subject
Source
Croatian Energy Association, Zagreb (Croatia); 316 p; ISBN 953-96345-3-9;
; 1996; p. 115-126; 5. forum: Energy day in Croatia: Expectation in energy consumption until 2020; Peti forum: Dan energije u Hrvatskoj: Ocekivanja u potrosnji energije do 2020. godine; Zagreb (Croatia); 13 Dec 1996; 3 figs.

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