[en] This year the Croatian Energy Society is organizing its 14. Forum. For this occasion we chose the topic Energy perspectives today and tomorrow, World-Europe-Croatia, which in recent years is increasingly in the focus of interest not only of energy experts but of broad public as well. Namely, the end of the 20. and beginning of the 21st century saw the changes that, in many ways, influenced the energy market development. Views on the future and energy supply stability as they were in the era of divisions (free and communist world, developed and undeveloped world) must be substantially and urgently changed, because the geopolitical landscape of the world has been changing as well as development dynamics of countries and parts of continents. For Europe (Croatia included), which has deficit of primary energy sources and depends on energy import, reliability, availability security and economy of imported energy are key assumptions of sustainable economic and ecological development. The Forum shall discuss the following issues, which strongly influence or will influence the energy perspectives in the next 50 years: Reserves and potentials (size, geo-allocation of resources, transport possibilities, renewable sources); Technologies (exploitation, production, transport, distribution, consumption: appliances, consumers, and processes); Economic development and energy demand (development levels, richness and poverty, price of energy and social influence, energy efficiency); Environmental protection (Kyoto Protocol, legislation, economic capacities, nuclear energy); Energy trade liberalization (market development, restructuring, common legislation, privatization); Security of supply (local, European and global level); Population growth; Political changes and conflicts, military conflicts, terrorism. World Energy Council (WEC) initiated work on global study on energy development: Energy Scenario to 2050. The energy community around the world is equally interested in this study. The discussions to take place during this Forum will contribute to understanding of the problems and to search of possible solutions.(author)

[en] The Croatian energy sector is excessively dependent on oil and natural gas, and fossil fuels reserves are very modest. At the same time, unused renewable energy potentials are relatively high. Energy import is constantly increasing, and is already very much above the EU average, thus contributing to very high Croatian foreign trade deficit. Croatia has not yet ratified the Kyoto Protocol, which it will be bound to do in the framework of the accession to the EU. Therefore, this climate scenario of the Croatian Energy Sector Development Strategy is proposed. It underlines the enhancement of energy efficiency and accelerated development of renewable energies.(author)

[en] Energy needs and concerns in the construction industry are mainly focused on energy savings, characterized by research for new insulation products. Automotive industry, for example, has already overgrown this level of energy performance of their products and fuel economizing is not carried out only through new engine design but also through new aerodynamic lines of vehicles aimed at reducing air resistance. The construction product industry, which, in financial terms, is quite capable to address the issue of energy savings and which benefits from these inventions, has no possibility to interfere in the form of buildings and relations between them. This is something architects and urban planners deal with. This is the subject of this paper, with emphasis on what has been accomplished so far in this regard in the so called developed countries, in comparison with others, where the issues of energy saving are even more difficult to tackle. (author)

[en] Many scenarios published in recent years explore the driving forces and assess plausible ranges of global energy use and the resources they draw on. Some scenarios (e.g., OECD IEA, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development International Energy Agency, 2004) focus on the next decade or two and project the evolution of world energy demand, supply as well as the resources, technologies, and prices to match them. Other scenarios (e.g., the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, SRES, prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, 2000) explore the long term with a view to resource availability and depletion, technological transformations, and environmental concerns, predominantly climate change. A persistent gap (see Figure 1) can be observed in the projections for nuclear energy: near-term scenarios typically project a flat or slightly declining contribution of nuclear energy to the world energy supply whereas medium- and long-term scenarios anticipate significant increases. The magnitude of the gap between the OECD IEA (2002) projections and the median of the 40 IPCC SRES scenarios for the year 2020 amounts to almost 300 GWe installed capacity. Reasons for the gap originate in the differences between the analytical frameworks (including projection techniques) adopted by the short- and long-term studies. Another, closely related reason is the difference in the underlying assumptions, particularly their relations to recent trends and the current situation. In addition, near-term projections are heavily influenced by the social context (perceived unpopularity or outright rejection of nuclear power after Chernobyl), political factors (government pronouncements and policies at the national level, diplomacy and balancing of national positions at international organizations), economic aspects (energy market deregulation and liberalization unveiling excess capacities; financial risks), technology matters (the role of learning, definition of reserves and resources, long-term marginal costs), and environmental issues (no CO₂ constraint until recently). Marked changes in recent years in all four domains indicate that the gap should be closed by augmenting near-term estimates rather than by reducing long-term projections. These changes include: entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol, pressure for more ambitious CO₂ reduction targets for the second commitment period under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and propositions of stabilization targets around 2 degrees of C global mean temperature increase, 550 ppmv CO₂ concentration, and alike in the environmental domain; increasing demand for energy (especially in fast-growing developing countries), high oil prices and supply security concerns (especially in developed countries) in the economic field; recovering social acceptance of nuclear power (despite waste and proliferation worries) in the social area; and changing government positions (partly in response to the above) in the political domain. The presentation elaborates the above reasons for the gap between the projections for different time scales. It examines the changing trends in the economic field (ample and geographically dispersed resource base for nuclear energy, drying up of the excess capacities, improving technical features and economic performance of nuclear reactors), in the environmental domain (policy declarations about the need for prices to reflect the social costs, the low greenhouse gas emissions from nuclear energy and the need for hedging against stricter CO₂ emission reductions in the future, progress in operating safety and waste disposal of nuclear power in recent years) and in social acceptance (presenting results of recent opinion polls in Switzerland, Finland, Germany, Sweden, Japan, and the USA). The presentation concludes that the balance of the changing trends suggests the need for upward correction of medium-term projections and calls for comprehensive studies to reassess the prospects for nuclear energy with a view to those trends and the still unresolved problems (proliferation, terrorism). This requires the re-examination of the concepts and methods underlying the projections at various time scales and the possible mechanisms to link and harmonize them.(author)

[en] Forest biomass is organic substance raised in forest ecosystem, consisting of trees and bushes which are used for mechanical processing and thermal use. Croatia, with 44 percent of surface under forests, has the renewable energy potential in forest biomass that could cover as much as about 50 percent of the current heating consumption. The existence of an appropriate heating consume and district heating are a prerequisite for exploitation of the mentioned potential. At the same time, heating consumption enables the utilization of cogeneration plants and the paper gives examples of such possibilities in industry, community and special facilities (sport centres, hotels, hospitals etc.). Among them, the so called 'Croatian energy absurdum' is mentioned. The paper underlines the feasibility of exploitation of forest biomass at the national level and suggests that, in order to promote and accelerate the development of cogeneration plants, the HED expert group should be established. The task of the expert group would be to draft proposal for appropriate measures in this regard and submit it to the Government for consideration.(author)

[en] Paper dealing with the topic ^Energy consumption and economic development (in developed / wealthy and undeveloped / poor regions; energy price, social influence and energy efficiency. 'Brothers and sisters, I want to tell you this. The greatest thing on earth is to have the love of God in your heart, and the next greatest thing is to have electricity in your house.' In the early 1940s a farmer, who had just been connected to the electric grid, gave witness in a rural church in the United States of America(author)

[en] Because of its limited energy resources, Turkey is heavily dependent on imported oil and gas. 73 percent of the world's proven oil reserves and 72 percent of the world's proven gas reserves are located in the surrounding regions of Turkey: Middle East, Caspian Region and Russia. This makes Turkey a crucial bridge between energy rich regions and Europe. There are major oil and gas pipelines going through Turkey and additional pipelines are being constructed or are being planned. There is some production of lignite which is used in power plants and industry. Turkey's natural energy resources are quite diversified; with quite abundant coal reserves. Energy forecasts show that primary energy demand would be 117 million TOE in 2005 and 156 million TOE in 2010. Oil has the biggest share (39 percent) in total primary energy consumption, while natural gas has a share of 21 percent and increasing due to the recent diversification efforts of energy resources. Turkey has about 1percent of the total world hydroelectric potential and a considerable potential for electricity generation from wind. As of early 2004, Turkey had electric power generating capacity of around 32,000 megawatts (MW), and was building 13,000 MW more. Since adoption of Electricity Market Law in February 2001, there were significant changes towards liberalisation of power generation market and distribution in the country. Privatization of generation assets is envisaged to start in 2006. The Electricity Market Law set the stage for new supporting laws and regulations as well as new organization of the market: the Energy Market Regulation Agency (EMRA), that oversees the power, natural gas markets, oil markets and liquefied petroleum gases market, including setting tariffs, issuing licenses, and assuring competition; the Energy Market Regulatory Board, which runs the EMRA; the Energy Market Licensing Regulation and the Electricity Market Tariffs Regulation; 4-phase approach towards electric energy market competition that aims towards establishment of Market Financial Reconciliation Centre for balancing and settlements.(author)

[en] This paper analyses the performance of the licensing procedure carried out in the Croatian energy sector. The paper presents the results of the above mentioned procedure, with distribution of frequency of applications per energy activities, as well as distribution of licenses which are issued for different energy activities determined under Article 15 of the Energy Law. It also describe certain problems that appeared during the licensing procedure, such as impossibility for natural persons to obtain a license for carrying out transport of oil derivatives (through product pipelines and other means of transport) and trading, mediation and representation in the energy market. Moreover, transport of oil, oil derivatives and bio fuel by road vehicles, bio fuel production and natural gas storage were not recognized as energy activities by the Energy Law in the past. Hence, the upgrading of regulatory framework in the field of licensing started after the new energy laws had been passed at the end of 2004.(author)

[en] In the framework of the National Energy Program from 1998, the MIEE program (Industrial Energy Efficiency network) has been initiated. The paper asserts that the implementation of the Program was only partial. Energy efficiency, as the most important pillar of energy supply, is described through overviews of energy intensity worldwide and in Croatia. Also, the scenario until 2030 is given. The overview of potential energy use rationalization shows that there is a long way from theoretical (scientifically corroborated) potential to its actual implementation, with obstacles to be overcome on the way to full realization. One of the most significant steps is the development of information network and establishment of energy agencies in Croatia, because Energy Can And Must Be Replaced With Information. (author)

[en] An impact is considered of different energy resources on the environment, with special reference to acid rains, NOx emission and greenhouse gases, land use, and biological diversity. Power generation and consumption ratio was compared for different sources. An overview is given of electricity sources in specific conditions of Croatia being a party to the Kyoto protocol.(author)