Greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenarios based on energy supply and energy consumption

A 'base' scenario for development of energy consumption and energy generation in Bulgaria for the period 1992 - 2020 is described. It comprises a macro-economic model with an aggregated view of sort-term economic growth and limited introduction of new technologies. The results show that due to deep economic recession in Bulgaria the greenhouse gas emissions in 2000 will not exceed their basic level of 1988, which is the most important requirement of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change. The strategies propose a preferential development of some production capacities and this will lead to emission reduction towards the end of the forecast period (2020) in the range 2.7 - 10%. 5 tabs